Colgate vs Kentucky Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s College Basketball Game

Kentucky has dominated mid-major foes and that won't change tonight as they will dictate the tempo against Colgate.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Dec 11, 2024 • 11:25 ET • 4 min read

NCAAB

Match starts: 5 hrs
UK
44 %
COLG
56 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Kentucky -32.0 (-110) Kentucky -32.0 (-110)
Read Analysis
Jaxson Robinson Kentucky Wildcats
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Kentucky Wildcats guard Jaxson Robinson (2) dribbles the ball against the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

The Colgate Raiders head to Lexington to take on the No. 5 ranked Kentucky Wildcats in NCAA basketball action tonight.

With two teams on opposite spectrums of the KenPom ratings the Wildcats are massive 32-point favorites and my Colgate vs. Kentucky predictions aren't shying away from taking the chalk.

Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash on December 11.

Colgate vs Kentucky prediction

My best bet
Kentucky -32 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

The Kentucky Wildcats are 8-1 with a pair of wins against Top-10 opponents. They've beaten four teams by at least 30 points — and three of those schools are higher than the Colgate Raiders in the KenPom ratings. Meanwhile, Colgate is 2-8, including losses by 22+ points to Cornell, Appalachian State, and N.C. State.

This could be a letdown spot for Kentucky after a thrilling overtime win against No. 8 Gonzaga and it's conceivable that the Raiders pull off the cover, if the Wildcats get a comfortable lead and take their foot off the pedal... but I think it's unlikely, for a few reasons.

There's an old adage that "defense travels" but the flip side of that is teams that defend poorly tend to struggle on the road. The Raiders are 225th in opponent turnover rate (14.6%), 275th in opponent 2-point percentage (54.6%), and 323rd in opponent 3-point percentage (37.3%). They'll be torched by an uptempo UK squad that is 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and can score inside and out.

Once the Raiders start playing from behind, they'll resort to chucking up the ball as they try to catch up. Colgate sits outside the Top 300 in attacking the rim frequency, while ranking 37th in midrange frequency and 54th in 3-point rate. Relying on outside shots is a bad idea in a hostile environment like Rupp Arena, especially since the Wildcats hold opponents to just 25.3% shooting from deep. When those perimeter shots don't drop, the scoring margin should only widen. 

The Wildcats could rest starters if they build an early lead but that won't matter due to their depth. This is a lineup with Koby Brea, Ansley Almonor, Kerr Kriisa, and Brandon Garrison playing major minutes off the bench. Brea and Almonor were former stars at mid-major conferences, Kriisa was a three-year starter for Arizona and West Virginia, while Garrison was a four-star recruit who started as a freshman at Oklahoma State last year. 

Even with those "backups" on the floor, Kentucky should run up the score.

Colgate vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Kentucky -32

Over 156.5

The Raiders prefer a slower pace but don't have the ability to dictate tempo, and will find themselves sucked into Kentucky's run-and-gun style. UK is playing at a break-neck pace in Mark Pope's first year leading the program, ranking ninth in the country in average offensive possession length (15.1 seconds).

Thanks to that speedy tempo and efficient offense the Wildcats lead the country with 92.6 ppg and have scored 95+ points in five of six games against mid-major foes. The Over has also gone a sizzling 17-4 in their last 21 games in Lexington.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!

Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.

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Colgate vs Kentucky odds

Colgate vs Kentucky live odds

Colgate vs Kentucky opening odds

  • Spread: Colgate +30.5 | Kentucky -30.5
  • Moneyline: Colgate +3,300 | Kentucky -10,000
  • Over/Under: Over 158 | Under 158

Odds courtesy of bet365.

Colgate vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Kentucky has hit the team total Over in 23 of its last 33 games (+11.55 Units / 30% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Colgate vs. Kentucky.

How to watch Colgate vs Kentucky

Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Date: Wednesday, 12-11-2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

Colgate vs Kentucky key injuries

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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