Colorado vs UCLA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bruins Lock Down on Defense

At 12 games and counting, the UCLA Bruins (15-2) have the third-longest active winning streak in the country. 

The Bruins put that streak on the line Saturday night as Tad Boyle’s Colorado Buffaloes (11-7) visit Pauley Pavillion with an upset on their minds. 

After falling to USC on Thursday night in a close game, the Buffaloes could use a win in the worst way if they hope to make ground in the conference standings.

Will UCLA continue to roll and remain unbeaten in Pac-12 play?

Check out our college basketball picks for Colorado vs. UCLA on January 14 to find out. 

Colorado vs UCLA best odds

Colorado vs UCLA picks and predictions

Another win on Saturday would mark UCLA’s longest run since the 2016-17 season. The Bruins have won 12 straight games and sit atop the conference standings with a perfect 6-0 record in Pac-12 play. Mick Cronin isn’t putting much stock into winning streaks in January, but it’s evident that the Bruins are a serious contender in the college basketball world yet again this season. 

KenPom’s ratings love the Bruins, where they sit third overall. They’re an elite team on both sides of the ball, ranking 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency while scoring 77.2 ppg and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency while surrendering just 60.1 ppg. 

Thursday’s 68-49 victory over Utah was an impressive score line, regardless of the scenario, although it's worth noting that was the second consecutive loss for the Utes, who were surprisingly without star player Branden Carlson against the Bruins. 

Colorado has been a difficult team to gauge in 2022-23. On one hand, it’s one of just two teams to defeat the Tennessee Volunteers, and on the other hand, it’s looked very mortal — even dropping a game to a now 3-14 Cal team on December 31. Perhaps if the Buffs played every game against an SEC team they would have more consistency — Colorado scored 103 points against Texas A&M in a 28-point victory only five days after the Tennessee win.

I don’t see this one being a high-scoring game for the Buffaloes. UCLA locks down defensively, limiting opponents to just 41.4% from the field and 29.1% from behind the arc. I believe that oddsmakers have currently adjusted the total down for the two L.A. teams this weekend after pricing them too high for the Thursday games (when both went Under). 

The best value on taking an Under currently, in my opinion, is on Colorado forward Tristan Da Silva’s points prop, which is listed at 14.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. He has gone Under 14.5 points in 10 of 18 games this season, and one must keep in mind that many of those games have come against teams with lesser defenses than UCLA. 

Da Silva has played against three teams that rank within the Top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency — Tennessee, Boise State, and Arizona State. He’s scored less than 15 points in all three of those games, averaging 11 ppg. UCLA is an elite defense in every sense of the word, and I’ll be betting on another subpar scoring output from Da Silva in a tough matchup. 

My best bet: Tristan Da Silva Under 14.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings)

Colorado vs UCLA spread analysis

UCLA sits between -11.5 and -12.5, depending on the location, as of this writing. 

Colorado looked completely lifeless during Thursday’s 68-61 loss at USC. This team doesn’t have enough offensive firepower and consistent scoring weapons to commit 22 turnovers as it did against USC. The fact that the Buffaloes still managed to almost come away with a win is a testament to how this team will have to compete on the road — by playing tough defense. 

I was not impressed whatsoever with my viewing of Thursday’s game. The Buffaloes are a well-coached team and their defense (26th in adjusted defensive efficiency) will keep them in games, but this team will need to win some games by the thinnest of margins to compete near the top of the Pac-12.

That being said, you won’t get any value on UCLA during its current winning streak. The Bruins are 10-7 ATS overall this season and are facing an opponent that is much better at home than on the road. The Buffaloes are just 30-61-1 ATS in their last 92 road games. They looked so sloppy, lifeless, and out-of-sorts at points in Thursday night’s game against USC that I won’t be playing Colorado on the road much until given reason to think otherwise. 

Colorado vs UCLA Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 138.5 before moving down to between 136.5 and 137.5 as of Saturday morning. Especially while the 137.5 is still available, I would recommend the Under — but not past 137. 

As mentioned earlier, Colorado doesn’t have a ton of offensive weaponry this season. Guard KJ Simpson leads the way with 17.8 ppg and also is tops in assists per game at 3.9. Da Silva (14.9 ppg) is the only other player averaging double figures. The Buffs check in at just 93rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and particularly struggle from behind the arc, converting on just 32.4% of their 3-point attempts (256th nationally). 

To no surprise, the Under is 4-0 in Colorado’s last four games against a team with a winning record. 

UCLA shoots 48% from the field (37th) and 37.1% from 3-point land (57th), excelling at putting the ball in the basket however it chooses. The Bruins don’t play at a very fast pace, however, ranking 240th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. They prefer to slow things down and take care of the ball, averaging just 9.7 turnovers per game. Colorado has been up to the task defensively all season long and should slow UCLA down somewhat.

Colorado vs UCLA betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in UCLA’s last six games overall. Find more College basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Colorado State.

Colorado vs UCLA game info

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