As great as the Houston Cougars’ defense is, it is also designed to be exploited by a team exactly like these BYU Cougars. While BYU has won nine straight, including four outright upsets, its recipe for success dates back even further. It is a simple recipe — shoot and make 3s.
My BYU vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks expect the best defense in the Big 12 to give up those looks, as per its design, and thus keep this game closer than bookmakers expect. Tip comes at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 this Friday, March 14, from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
Who will win BYU vs Houston?
The Cougars will win. Get it?
In all seriousness, as tempting as it is to bet on BYU to win (+260 at bet365), it has to be remembered that Houston has lost just once since December 1, a one-point overtime defeat against Texas Tech on February 1. The Houston defense creates such a high floor, it can survive offensive dry spells.
Furthermore, three of Houston’s losses were in overtime. The fourth was against arguably the second-best team in the country, Auburn. As well as BYU is playing these days, it is illogical to expect it to spring an upset of someone who does not get upset in regulation.
BYU vs Houston prediction
My best bet: BYU +7 (-110 at bet365)
Betting on the BYU Cougars right now is betting on continued good shooting. That shooting has held up for 15 games, including yesterday against the defense that best compares to Houston’s among Big 12 contenders.
BYU hit 18 of 36 threes vs. Iowa State. Maybe making 50% of its long-range looks is not sustainable, but realize that five different BYU shooters made at least two 3-pointers, all shooting 37.5% or better from beyond the arc. This was not one player engulfed in flames, this was a humming offense.
It hummed against an Iowa State defense that gave up 32.4% on 3-pointers attempted in Big 12 play this season, with opponents taking 39.7% of their shots from deep and suffering through a 48.3% eFG%. Compare those numbers to a Houston Cougars defense that gave up 32.9% on 3-pointers attempted in Big 12 play this season, with opponents taking 43.4% of their shots from deep and suffering through a 47.7% eFG%.
Those are not directly comparable, but if anyone in the Big 12 plays defense like Houston does, it is Iowa State.
BYU is glad to be forced to shoot from deep, taking more than 62% of its shots from beyond the arc yesterday. That is where it excels.
Since BYU’s surge began — more accurately pinpointed as a January 21 game at Colorado than just the start of the nine-game winning streak (also a better sample size spanning 15 games) — it has taken 49% of its shots from deep (47.9% before January 21), making 40% of those shots (35.4% before). That is how you find an eFG% better than 60%.
There is no reason to doubt BYU’s shooting now. It already excelled in T-Mobile Center yesterday. Houston gives up these looks by design. It shouldn’t tonight, but it still will. That is the cost of the quick turnaround of a conference tournament.
Even if Houston is up by three scores in the final minute, BYU’s shooting should spur a backdoor cover.
BYU vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
BYU +7
BYU team total Over 63.5
Richie Saunders Over 1.5 made 3s
If Houston is going to allow those looks, BYU will take them. And if BYU is going to shoot from deep, it is going to make some of them. You do not play seven weeks of basketball while making 40% of your 3-pointers only to have that entirely disappear in one night.
BYU scored 96 points on Iowa State’s defense yesterday. That game did not even have an elevated possession count. BYU has not fallen short of this point total since January 4. Sure, that was at Houston, but consider that only fuel tonight.
Richie Saunders went 1 of 5 that night, but he has cleared this meager prop in 14 of his 21 Big 12 games this season, including going 3 of 8 from deep yesterday.
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BYU vs Houston odds
BYU vs Houston live odds
BYU vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: BYU +7.5 | Houston -7.5
- Moneyline: BYU +275 | Houston -350
- Over/Under: Over 135 | Under 135
Odds courtesy of bet365
BYU vs Houston betting trend to know
Along with going 13-2 outright since January 21, BYU has also gone 11-3-1 against the spread. Find more college basketball betting trends for BYU vs. Houston.
How to watch BYU vs Houston
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
BYU vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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