It’s rare in the new-look Big Ten to play the same team three times in one season, but the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan Wolverines complete a trio of tilts in Round 3 of the tournament.
These conference foes split the first two matchups, so it’s no surprise to see a slim spread for tonight's quarterfinal. Purdue will jump on the back of talented forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, who had a busy day against UM in their last meeting.
My best Purdue vs. Michigan predictions like Kaufman-Renn to rattle the glass. Read more in my college basketball picks for Friday, March 14.
Who will win Purdue vs Michigan?
Given that these rivals traded wins in the regular season, game models call for a close one on Friday night.
I’ll give the edge to Purdue, which has a 58% implied win probability based on the moneyline price.
Purdue vs Michigan prediction
My best bet: Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 5.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)
I’m not crazy about laying -135 on a player prop, but this number seems too short for one of the best big men in the Big Ten.
Kaufman-Renn averages 6.2 boards per game for Purdue, and he has been extra aggressive on the glass in recent outings. He hauled in seven rebounds in Thursday’s win over USC and had 15 combined rebounds in the final two regular-season games.
TKR did see a significant dip in his rebounding efforts in a four-game span between February 15 and February 28, in which he maxed out at four rebounds during that stretch. The Boilermakers were mired in a nasty funk during that span, but Kaufman-Renn called a “players only” meeting and has been packing the box score since.
In his last meeting with Michigan, the beefy 6-foot-9 forward grabbed seven rebounds against the Wolverines — with three coming on the offensive glass.
For all its size, Michigan isn’t a great rebounding team. The Wolverines allowed the fourth most toal rebounds to opponents during conference play and ranked dead last in keeping foes from the offensive glass, giving up a Big Ten high 12.1 offensive rebounds per game.
Player projections range from 7.6 to 8.2 boards for Kaufman-Renn tonight. My number comes out just shy of eight rebounds, which makes laying the vig on Over 5.5 boards well worth it. It also opens up value on TKR’s milestone market, with 7+ rebounds paying +140.
Purdue vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Trey Kaufman-Renn 7+ rebounds
Trey Kaufman-Renn 20+ points
Tre Donaldson 3+ assists
Kaufman-Renn is projected to grab more than seven rebounds tonight, having pulled down exactly that number the last time he faced UM.
TKR has been carrying Purdue the past few games, scoring 20-plus points in nine of his last 11 games.
Donaldson is forecasted for four assists tonight and faces much easier defense than UM’s last three foes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Michigan odds
Purdue vs Michigan live odds
Purdue vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Purdue -2.5 (-110) | Michigan +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Purdue -150 | Michigan +125
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 (-110) | Under 147.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Michigan betting trend to know
The Boilermakers have hit the 1H moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games (+12.86 Units/7% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Michigan.
How to watch Purdue vs Michigan
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | BTN |
Purdue vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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