Have the Arizona Wildcats disappointed this season? There is a strong argument saying so, even if they finished No. 3 in the Big 12 and look poised for a postseason run. The Wildcats looked to be living up to preseason expectations until a late lull, losing five of their last eight games.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have slightly outrun their expectations this season, and if it were not for the behemoth known as Houston dominating most Big 12 conversations, we would probably be discussing the Red Raiders as national title dark horses.
My Arizona vs. Texas Tech predictions and college basketball picks double down on that underappreciation of the Raiders, as they take this rubber match in part because the Wildcats are clearly scuffling. Tip comes at 9:30 ET on Thursday, March 14.
Who will win Arizona vs Texas Tech?
The recent Arizona Wildcats slide should be a red flag for anyone looking to back the Wildcats either tonight or in the NCAA Tournament. Even including last night’s outright and against the spread win against Kansas, Arizona has gone 4-5 outright in its last nine games and 3-6 ATS. The Wildcats were outright upset twice in that stretch, and even if willing to give some leeway for losing to scorching-hot BYU, there is little justification for falling at Kansas State.
Texas Tech is not suffering such a slide. The Red Raiders are, in fact, largely taking care of business. They should have avoided a loss at TCU on Feb. 18, but otherwise, their last month has been only impressive.
The debate in this preview was not about who would win. It was whether to take Texas Tech on the moneyline (-135 at bet365) or as a two-point favorite.
Arizona vs Texas Tech prediction
My best bet: Texas Tech -2 (-110 at bet365)
The thought that tipped this best bet to the spread from the moneyline is that Texas Tech makes its free throws, hitting 76.3% in Big 12 competition, even if only 68.8% last night in a surprisingly tight win against Baylor. When push came to shove, those shots were taken by the proven veterans, going 4-of-4 in the final minute. The top six players in the Red Raiders’ rotation all hit at least 72.3% of their free throws this season.
As for siding with Texas Tech in general, ponder the nonconference dichotomy that props up Arizona. The Wildcats are praised for playing a tough early-season schedule, and we all know not enough teams do that. But Arizona went 1-5 outright against nonconference opponents considered in the top third of the country by kenpom.com. The one win? A home game against Samford ranked No. 116 at the time by Ken Pomeroy’s numbers.
Sure, the Wildcats went 14-6 in Big 12 play, beating the likes of Baylor, BYU, Iowa State and, yes, Texas Tech. But overall, Arizona’s season is counterintuitively boosted by repeatedly losing before Big 12 play.
Some of that ties to the unexpected fact that the Wildcats do not do any one thing extremely well. They are all-around good but nowhere great. Most pertinently, Arizona struggles from deep, making just 32.4% of its 3s in Big 12 play, thus taking them on only 35.5% of shots, the fourth-lowest rate in the conference.
Texas Tech will suffocate those already struggling numbers, ranking No. 1 defensively in the Big 12 in both regards, while shooting an abundance of 3-pointers itself, ranking No. 2 in the conference in frequency and No. 3 in conversion rate, hitting 36.6% of those deep shots.
Come tournament time, an underdog needs a specialized skill to counter a disparity from beyond the arc on both ends of the court. Arizona lacks that counterpunch.
Arizona vs Texas Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas Tech -2
Over 152
Caleb Love Under 2.5 threes
Adding Caleb Love to make fewer than three 3-pointers should not jump this same-game parlay by 89.4%, but if the sportsbook insists on making that mistake, we will gladly take advantage.
Love hit just 33.1% of his 3s in Big 12 play and has cleared this prop in only three of his last 10 games. It can pretty readily be argued that he has shot Arizona out of a few close losses, most notably going 1-of-15 from deep in back-to-back losses to Kansas State and Houston, games decided by three and four points, respectively.
Yet Arizona has cashed the Over in its last three games, and Texas Tech has leaned toward Overs all season. So adding that likelihood to Love’s bad shooting holds enough logic to justify this value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Arizona vs Texas Tech odds
Arizona vs Texas Tech live odds
Arizona vs Texas Tech opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +2.5 | Texas Tech -2.5
- Moneyline: Arizona +120 | Texas Tech -140
- Over/Under: Over 153 | Under 153
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arizona vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
Eight of 12 games in the Big 12 Tournament have cashed their Overs. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Texas Tech.
How to watch Arizona vs Texas Tech
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Arizona vs Texas Tech key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
