Colorado vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buffaloes Stampede Trojans

Andy Enfield’s USC Trojans (11-5) return home to the Galen Center after a three-game road trip. It’s a welcome homecoming after losing two straight games to Washington State and UCLA. 

Tad Boyle’s Colorado Buffaloes (11-6) look to improve upon their 3-3 conference record and pick up a quality road win. Winners of seven of their last eight games, the Buffaloes will look to stay hot.

Can Boyle’s squad overcome its struggles on the road in this midweek matchup?

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Colorado vs. USC on Thursday, January 12 to find out. 

Colorado vs USC best odds

Colorado vs USC picks and predictions

Colorado is a difficult team to figure out as it's been a roller coaster of performances this season. First, conference play started with back-to-back losses against Arizona State and Washington, dropping the Buffaloes to 4-5 to start the year.

Despite having a losing record after nine games, the Buffs were able to notch a 78-66 victory over Tennesee, one of the best teams in the country, during that stretch. They would respond with four straight non-conference victories highlighted by a 93-65 drubbing of Colorado State. After returning to league play on December 29, they’ve gone 3-1 with the lone loss a perplexing one to Cal.

The Golden Bears are one of — if not the — worst teams in Division I hoops, ranking 203rd overall in KenPom and sitting with a 3-13 record. Allowing 80 points in a defeat to a team like that is certainly not an encouraging sign, although Colorado responded with two resounding victories over the Oregon schools (68-41 over Oregon, 62-42 over Oregon State).

The performances have been uneven, but it's evident this is one of the Pac-12’s best teams yet again this season. The Buffaloes have really struggled on the road, however, posting a 1-3 record including the aforementioned embarrassment at Cal.

Bettors have taken note of those struggles and flooded the market with early USC money, moving the line from -2.5 in the Trojans’ favor at open to as high as -4 at current. 

USC will be glad to have its first home game since December 18, sporting a 7-1 record in its barn. The Trojans have lost two straight games and will look to get back on track with two difficult games against Colorado and Utah this week. 

Colorado has been one of the most difficult teams to read in the country, floundering out of the gates yet still managing to pick up a victory over Tennesee. The Buffs are 3-3 in league play yet somehow managed to allow 80 points to Cal in a terrible loss sandwiched between league wins.

Despite them being so hard to gauge, bettors seem confident that they have this team figured out — they play well at home, usually, but are a liability on the road.

I’m not so confident that something as simple as home/road splits make this matchup so predictable. The Buffaloes have been the better team this season, checking in at 47th overall in KenPom, 16 spots above USC down at 63rd overall. Road struggles or not, this line is too wide for my liking and therefore will trigger a play on the underdog against the spread. 

My best bet: Colorado +4 (-110 at PointsBet)

Colorado vs USC spread analysis

At the time of this writing, Colorado resides between a +3.5 and a +4 underdog depending on where you look. Be sure to use our odds tool to check for the best line. 

The Buffs rank 47th overall in KenPom, checking in at 83rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Guard KJ Simpson (17.9 ppg) has been the star of the show, emerging as the focal point of the offense and leading the team in assists per game (3.9) in addition to scoring. His main partner in crime is forward Tristan Da Silva (15.1 ppg), a swiss-army knife who does it all for Boyle’s squad. 

USC is ranked 63rd in KenPom, checking in at 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. As has become a staple under Enflied, the Trojans are a tall, long team — although not quite to the same extent as in recent seasons.

Boogies Ellis (15.7 ppg) is the leading scorer, while Drew Peterson (13.7 ppg) is the key that makes the offense go, averaging 6.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game as a triple-double threat. 

USC has yet to notch many notable victories this season, falling short against tougher opponents while taking care of business against inferior ones. The Trojans haven’t been profitable at home, going just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. 

Colorado vs USC Over/Under analysis

The total is set between 141 and 141.5 depending on where you look as of the time of this writing. 

Both teams are better defensively than they are offensively, so why is the total so high? There is expected to be a decent tempo in this game, as Colorado likes to operate with pace on offense. The Buffaloes rank 42nd in KenPom’s adjusted temp metric, which should force the Trojans into a few extra possessions.

Still, I have to side with the Under in this spot given both teams’ nature. 

Colorado has a stingy defense allowing opponents to hit just 45.5% of its 2-point attempts, good for 55th nationally. The Trojans rarely attempt 3-point shots (324th nationally with just 17.8 attempts per game) and don’t shoot well when they do, converting at just 31.6%. USC doesn’t forecast finding an abundance of success either inside or outside the arc in this spot. 

The Trojans have an elite defense inside the arc, holding opponents to just 41.1% shooting (third nationally) on 2-point shots, with the fearsome Joshua Morgan leading the way with 2.7 blocks per game. Easy looks are hard to come by against USC. 

Colorado vs USC betting trend to know

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools. Find more College basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Colorado State.

Colorado vs USC game info

Colorado vs USC key injuries

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