The Xavier Musketeers will look to improve their hopes of securing an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament as they host the Creighton Bluejays on Saturday afternoon.
The Bluejays have been the better team this season and have already scored a solid win over the Musketeers this year, which is why I'm taking the visitors to cover the spread in my Creighton vs. Xavier predictions.
Keep reading for my full analysis and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 1.
Creighton vs Xavier prediction
My best bet
Creighton +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
These two Big East stalwarts will face off in what should be another competitive game on Saturday, but while these schools are both likely deserving of an NCAA Tournament bid, the Creighton Bluejays have the clear edge today.
The first matchup between these teams, which took place on Jan. 29, showed why Creighton should be the favorite in the second matchup. The Bluejays put up 86 points against the Xavier Musketeers, largely behind the matchup problem caused by center Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Kalkbrenner scored 29 points on 12-for-17 shooting in that matchup, leading Creighton to a 9-point victory. Xavier had no answer for that post presence and never came close to making up the difference on the perimeter.
Even if we ignore this matchup issue — or if we think that Xavier coach Sean Miller can come up with a way to handle Kalkbrenner down low — Creighton is still the better team in every facet of the game.
According to KenPom, Creighton is the No. 33 team in the country, ranking in the Top 50 in both offensive and defensive ratings. Meanwhile, Xavier comes in at No. 54, and while its defense also comes in as a Top-50 unit, the Musketeers don’t have the firepower to match Creighton, ranking just 71st in offensive efficiency.
The Bluejays recently dropped two games in a row, but that was only a minor blip in an otherwise excellent season. Creighton has won 11 of its last 13 games and has been one of the leading teams in the Big East, going 13-4 in conference play. Ten of those conference wins have come by 5+ points, showing Creighton's dominance over its league rivals.
Xavier has won four in a row in Big East play, but those wins have largely come against much weaker competition than Creighton. The Bluejays have won the last three meetings and the matchup issues should be too much for the Musketeers to overcome, even at home.
Creighton vs Xavier same-game parlay (SGP)
Creighton +2.5
Under 150.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner 20+ points
Along with taking Creighton to cover the spread on the road, I’ll also take the Under in my SGP. These teams may have gone to a higher number in their first matchup but both are averaging lower totals all season long, and both have plenty of games that have come in below 150 points in recent play to make me stick with the Under this afternoon.
While I’m not expecting many points, I’m still taking Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner to do what he does best. Kalkbrenner has a favorable matchup against a Xavier team that plays without a true center, and he should easily outsize Musketeers big man Zach Freemantle. Kalkbreener has gotten to 20+ points in five of his last nine games, and with a size edge in the paint, I suspect he'll do so tonight.
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Creighton vs Xavier odds
Creighton vs Xavier live odds
Creighton vs Xavier opening odds
- Spread: Creighton +2.5 | Xavier -2.5
- Moneyline: Creighton +120 | Xavier -140
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Creighton vs Xavier betting trend to know
Creighton is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Xavier.
How to watch Creighton vs Xavier
| Location | Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Saturday, 3-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Creighton vs Xavier key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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