Colorado vs Washington State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Da Silva Strikes Gold

Chalk has rolled thus far in the Pac-12 Tournament bracket as all four top seeds advanced to the semifinals. The nightcap on Friday features a matchup between the No. 3 seed Colorado Buffaloes (23-9, 13-7 Pac-12) and the No. 2 seed Washington State Cougars (24-8, 14-6).

Looking at the conference tournament odds, the Buffaloes are a narrow 2-point favorite while the total resides at 137.5. 

Colorado advanced with an impressive 72-58 win over No. 6 seed Utah in the second round, pulling away in the second half. Washington State made easy work of No. 10 seed Stanford by a final score of 79-62. Kyle Smith is looking to lead his team to its first-ever appearance in the tournament final en route to a March Madness odds bid.

The metrics like the Buffaloes but the Cougars are the better seed and have more marquee wins this season. What’s the correct side on the betting line? Check out my college basketball picks and predictions for Colorado vs. Washington State on Friday, March 15.

Colorado vs Washington State best odds

Colorado vs Washington State picks and predictions

Both of these teams might be headed for the NCAA Tournament, although the Colorado Buffaloes could use another win to feel better about their chances considering how many bubble teams have a strong case this year. They’re projected to be in the field in 92 of 105 brackets compiled at Bracket Matrix, whereas the Washington State Cougars are listed as a No. 7 seed. 

It seems a bit odd that Colorado has found itself on the bubble considering how strong this team’s per-play efficiency has been. The Buffs rank 24th overall in KenPom, checking in at 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

They match up with the Cougars in what makes for a scintillating Friday night showdown between two teams of similar caliber. Washington State beat Arizona twice this season and is hunting for its first conference championship since 1941. 

Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Myles Rice averaged 15.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, and four assists per game. He’s joined on the All-Pac-12 First Team by forward Isaac Jones (15.4 points, 7.5 rebounds per game) to form one of the conference’s top duos. 

The Cougars check into this matchup ranked 41st overall in KenPom — 48th on offense and 29th on defense. You’ll notice that’s behind the Buffs, hence why Tad Boyle’s team is favored. The Cougars had a nice run and all this season, but much of their reputation has been built up off beating the Wildcats twice. 

The Washington State program hasn’t experienced much success in recent history. It’s been 15 years since they went dancing. The Cougars have never made a Pac-12 Tournament Final and have appeared in the semifinals just three times since the modern format began in 1987. 

I’m a believer in Colorado. KJ Simpson and Tristan da Silva give Boyle two star players to work with. They combined to average 35.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game and are joined by star freshman Cody Williams (13.3 ppg), who is a likely NBA Draft lottery pick. 

They shoot tremendously well from deep with the nation’s third-best 3-point percentage at 40.2% and are also strong at the line (77.7%). They also hit the boards extremely well, ranking fifth nationally in rebounding percentage (56.1%). 

It’s hard for me not to fall in love with the Buffaloes. They have a daunting presence with two star players, an uber-talented freshman in Williams, and they shoot and rebound at an elite level. 

Boyle is running a seven-man rotation where six are upperclassmen and the only exception is Williams, who is one of the top freshmen in the country. That’s the kind of experience you want to rely on in March. 

The Buffs have won six straight games and seem to be aware that they’re on the bubble and have responded appropriately. The margins are thin, but they have the better metrics and have a strong motivation to keep putting forth their best effort. That’s enough for me to back Colorado against this slim spread.

My best bet: Colorado -2 (-110 at bet365)

Colorado vs Washington State same-game parlay

Colorado -2

Tristan da Silva Over 15.5 points

Tristan da Silva Over 1.5 made 3s

+325 at DraftKings

Colorado’s star forward is averaging 16.1 ppg and 1.8 made 3s per game. I like him to have at least an average game tonight as he’s a veteran player who has been in these spots before, and I think he’s ready to shine. 

Washington State’s defensive philosophy loves to push teams toward the mid-range. Per Haslametrics, the Cougars rank 325th in mid-range attempt rate defensively. That style could benefit da Silva, who takes 28.7% of his shots on 2-point jumpers and hits them at a healthy 50% clip, which is 7.7% better than the next-closest Buffs rotational player. 

He’ll be relied upon to generate offense against this stingy Washington State defense. Colorado’s offense is just as good, if not better, so da Silva & Co are up to the challenge. Once he gets in a rhythm shooting, the 3-point shots should fall. He’s nailed two or more 3-pointers in eight of his last 12 games, so I see some value in this number. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado vs Washington State spread and Over/Under analysis

Colorado opened at -2 and has started moving to -2.5 at some spots. Be sure to shop around and track any fluctuations in the market using our college basketball line movement tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

The Buffs are 16-16 ATS this year while Washington State has been slightly profitable at 17-15 ATS. Both of the home teams covered the regular season meetings with Colorado covering the -6.5 line in Boulder and Wazzu covering -3 in Pullman. 

The Buffs rank slightly higher at Bart Tovik since the start of February, checking in at 28th while Washington State is 39th. While it’s always necessary to take the metrics with a grain of salt and provide context, I actually think that context benefits the Buffs as Williams has missed 13 games due to injury while Javon Ruffin, a key bench piece, has been limited with a knee injury and played in just 15 games. 

The total opened at 137.5 but has moved to 138.5 at current. Colorado has been an Over team at 19-13 O/U while Washington State has been an Under team 14-17-1 O/U. The Cougars like to slow things down, ranking just 311th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. 

The opening total was a bit low considering the first regular season matchup had a total of 143 while the second was 144. Both games would’ve gone over the current total of 138.5 with a few points to spare. T-Mobile Arena is a friendly place for shooters and I see a little bit of value on the Over. 

Colorado vs Washington State betting trend to know

Washington State is the only Pac-12 school to have never advanced to a championship game in the conference tournament. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Washington State.

Colorado vs Washington State game info

Colorado vs Washington State key injuries

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