It's Big East basketball as Crieghton meets Marquette. While Marquette wants to win here, it's hard to deny that this game is more significant for the Jays.
Creighton heads into the new year as a team that is certainly not an iron lock for the NCAA Tournament. They are on the wrong side of the bubble for the moment. That's a sentence you wouldn't have thought you'd hear right before the year.
With that in mind, this is a critical opportunity for the Jays to grab a marquee win that could elevate their tournament status against a team that has won three straight since losing at Dayton as we preview the matchup in my Creighton vs. Marquette predictions.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Friday, January 3.
Creighton vs Marquette prediction
My best bet
Jamiya Neal Over 5.5 assists (+120 at bet365)
My analysis
This is an interesting matchup between two programs that, in many ways, have been similar over the past three years: close, but not quite title contenders.
Coming into this matchup, that's different. Marquette can make a lot of noise in March because of Kam Jones, head coach Shaka Smart, and others, but something (perhaps inconsistency) still leaves you wanting more. Meanwhile, as mentioned, Creighton goes into January with their season at a crossroads. I like this matchup to be compelling, and while I don't have an opinion on the total/side, I do want one prop considerably for my best bet. That's centered around Arizona State transfer guard Jamiya Neal. I'm taking his Over 5.5 assist as my best bet.
Something changed after the second of two consecutive losses to Georgetown. Neal's usage dropped about ten percent, but his minutes increased, his assist rate increased, and he became much more efficient. Against Georgetown, Neal posted a similar pattern the month before that game: 26 minutes, 25% usage, four assists, and a negative BPM. The two games after? An average 16% usage rate, 6.5 assists, and BPM are well in the plus range. It's tough to put a finger on what's opening the floor up more for Neal, but I have an idea as far as it relates to assisting.
In those two games and two wins, Creighton faced two teams that struggled to defend big men cutting to the basket, and they exploited both of those issues quite well. Against Villanova, Creighton posted 1.31 points per possession on significant cuts & rolls, and against St John's, the number was almost identical. Neal was the primary benefactor, being the guard to facilitate that action. Marquette's splits guarding those cutting bigs are very similar to the last two opponents of Creighton.
Considering all that, it's hard to think the outcome is different. I projected Neals's assist number to be 6.2, so getting a plus-money price on this is a must-play.
Creighton vs Marquette same-game parlay
Jamiya Neal over 5.5 assists
Ryan Kalkbrenner over 16.5 points
I'm surprised we are not getting charged more of a premium for something I view as highly correlated. I'm pairing Kalkbrenner with my best bet to go over 16.5 points. He is a direct benefactor of the aforementioned cuts to the basket.
It's been a bit of a challenging season for Kalkbrenner, but he's really found some form lately. I like the matchup here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Creighton vs Marquette odds
Creighton vs Marquette live odds
Creighton vs Marquette opening odds
- Spread: Creighton +10 | Marquette -10
- Moneyline: Creighton +390 | Marquette -525
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 | Under 146.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Creighton vs Marquette betting trend to know
Creighton has hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+7.85 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Marquette.
How to watch Creighton vs Marquette
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 1-3-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox Sports 1 |
Creighton vs Marquette key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
