The No. 10 Duke Blue Devils are not only making waves in the ACC Tournament, but also inching closer to an improbable spot in the Big Dance, and now face the No. 2 Florida State Seminoles in the quarterfinals in Greensboro Thursday.
Duke roughed up Boston College in the opening round and beat Louisville at its own game, locking down the Cardinals for a 70-56 win in the second round Wednesday. Florida State hasn’t played since losing the season finale – and No. 1 seed – to Notre Dame on March 7.
Here are our college basketball betting free picks and predictions for Duke vs. Florida State on March 11.
Duke vs Florida State odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe opening odds out of Las Vegas have Florida State set as a 3-point neutral-court favorite with the Over/Under total hitting the board at 153.5 points. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameDuke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles betting preview
Injuries
Duke: None.
Florida State: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Florida State is 11-2-2 Over/Under in 14 ACC games this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Florida State.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Blue Devils have turned heads in their two ACC Tournament games, most notably a dominant defensive showing against Louisville – avenging two regular-season losses to the Cardinals. Duke limited UL to 29.5 percent shooting and was extremely active on defense, switching on screens and not giving the Cardinals much room to operate inside.
The Blue Devils won’t be able to institute that same defensive game plan against the sharp-shooting Seminoles, who bang home 8.4 3-pointers per game. However, Florida State enters the postseason on a down note after losing the final outing versus Notre Dame, and hasn’t had the same shooting stroke in foreign venues.
The Noles knock down an average of 9.5 triples on 42.6 percent shooting from distance at home but make 6.4 3-point buckets per contest on only 30.6 percent success from the perimeter away from Tallahassee. Florida State went 6 for 24 from outside versus the Irish and was 5 for 17 from distance in a loss at North Carolina on February 27.
Duke, on the other hand, has improved its offense in the postseason compared to the shooting lull it found itself in at the end of the season. The Blue Devils are hitting at just under 49 percent from the floor in those last two wins, including a 44.6 percent clip from beyond the arc, which is extremely valuable against a bigger team like FSU.
If Duke can stretch the Seminoles with those makes from outside and open up space in the interior, the Blue Devils are a tough team to stop – more so with the emergence of freshmen center Mark Williams. These teams didn’t meet in the regular season due to a COVID-19 cancellation, but Leonard Hamilton hasn’t gotten the best of Coach K since January 2017.
PREDICTION: Duke +3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Noles may not shoot the ball as well outside of Donald L. Tucker Center, but this team can put up some points, regardless of venue. Florida State sits 11th in KenPom.com’s adjusted offensive efficiency and averages over 74 points per game away from home.
This will be a much tougher challenge for the Duke defense, which has benefitted from offensively-stunted opponents so far in the ACC Tournament. The last time the Blue Devils battled a scoring attack this deep, they gave up 91 points to North Carolina in the season finale.
Florida State’s defense isn’t much to write home about either, allowing 74.6 points away from home and going 11-2-2 Over/Under versus conference opponents this season. The Blue Devils are also high in offensive efficiency – ranked 15th – and rode a six-game Over run to cap the regular season before two Unders in the postseason.
PREDICTION: Over 153.5 (-110)
Duke vs Florida State betting card
- Duke +3 (-110)
- Over 153.5 (-110)
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