The Wake Forest Demon Deacons host the No. 14 Duke Blue Devils in NCAA basketball action tonight.
The Blue Devils have dominated this ACC rivalry lately, winning 17 of the last 18 meetings and oddsmakers expect them to cruise to victory once again.
College basketball odds opened with the Deacons as 7-point home underdogs but that number slimmed to +6 after news came out that Duke would be without a pair of highly-regarded freshmen.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Duke vs. Wake Forest on Tuesday, December 20.
Duke vs Wake Forest best odds
Duke vs Wake Forest picks and predictions
The unranked Demon Deacons have lost three of their last four games (0-4 against the spread). They are coming off an ugly 24-point road loss to Rutgers and also lost by 20 points to Clemson on December 2.
Their lone victory during that recent four-game stretch was a home contest against Appalachian State where they needed a buzzer-beater from Andrew Carr to avoid the upset loss.
Now they take on a well-rested Blue Devils team whose only defeats have been against No. 1 Purdue and No. 4 Kansas. Duke has a young squad loaded with five-star freshmen and is getting better with every game.
The Blue Devils are fresh off a dominant victory against Maryland-Eastern Shore and while that might not seem that impressive, keep in mind that they started five freshmen and were missing point guard Jeremy Roach (13.1 points and a team-leading 3.5 assists per game) due to a toe injury.
Head coach Jon Scheyer told reporters that Roach will be ready to go tonight which is big news for a Duke team that relies on his experience, ball handling, and distribution. However, freshmen Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively II will miss the game with a non-covid illness.
Both of them actually began the season on the injured list and have only begun to make an impact in recent weeks so Duke has the depth to succeed without them.
The Deacons have some quality perimeter players but their rotation of big men is subpar. Even without Lively, the Blue Devils have Kyle Filipowski and Ryan Young who are far more talented and athletic than anyone Wake can throw at them in the paint.
The Demon Deacons might be at home but that hasn't helped them in the last two seasons against Duke. The Blue Devils beat the Deacons by 12 in Winston-Salem in January and routed them 84-60 in February of 2021.
Look for the Blue Devils to pull ahead again and when they're nursing a lead late in the game, their accurate free-throw shooting (78.3%) will ensure they cover this spread.
My best bet: Duke -6 (-110 at bet365)
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Duke vs Wake Forest spread analysis
Wake Forest looked like a team to keep an eye on early in the season after getting off to a 6-1 start and beating Wisconsin on the road.
The Deacons have since gone 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS and have looked terrible on both ends of the floor in road losses to Clemson and Rutgers.
Point guard Tyree Appleby has been Wake's best player and is leading the school with 18 points, 5.1 assists, and 1.7 steals per game while boasting an impressive 52/44/88 shooting split.
However, he can't single-handedly carry a Wake team that is shooting the ball fairly well but struggling to defend inside the arc while getting killed on the offensive glass.
It was a grueling early schedule for the Blue Devils, who played 12 games in the first 33 days of the season and traveled nearly 8,000 miles in the process. But Duke has finally gotten some well-deserved rest and hasn't played since beating Maryland-Eastern Shore 82-55 on December 10.
Filipowski leads the team with 14.8 ppg and 9.2 rpg. Meanwhile, seniors Young and Jacob Grandison will see an uptick in minutes with Whitehead and Lively sidelined.
The Blue Devils are 18th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom while ranking 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
They are also third in the country in rebounding rate (57.8%) and will look to dominate on the boards against a Wake Forest team that had a rebounding rate of just 36.8% in its last contest.
Duke vs Wake Forest Over/Under analysis
The Demon Deacons have four players averaging double-digit points but they have struggled to score as a whole lately.
They are averaging just 62.8 ppg on 42.5% shooting in their last four and looked brutal against Rutgers on Saturday. They went just 9-24 from two-point range in that contest while pulling down just six offensive rebounds and turning the ball over 19 times.
Now they face off against a Duke team that plays at a slow pace and is holding foes to just 58.7 ppg.
The Blue Devils have been able to lock down some highly-efficient offenses limiting Iowa, Ohio State, and Xavier to an average of 66 ppg. All three of those teams rank in the Top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Duke vs Wake Forest betting trend to know
The Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more College basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Wake Forest.
Duke vs Wake Forest game info
| Location: | Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 20, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
