Marquette and Connecticut lock horns in a Big East affair late Wednesday night.
All games this time of year feel bigger than usual, but this one feels like it has a little extra juice, with both teams battling for seeding in the Big East tournament.
Read on for my Marquette vs. Connecticut predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 5.
Marquette vs UConn prediction
My best bet
UConn team total Under 74.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
One of the things that moves to the front of my handicapping process in March (like it does for most) is what teams are playing best heading into the postseason. Regarding these two teams, that answer has unequivocally been the Marquette Golden Eagles.
Filtering out ratings for just the past month highlights the gap. In that timespan, Marquette ranked 34th in BarTorvik, while the Connecticut Huskies rank in the mid-50s. There's value on Marquette here, and I'll be relying on their defense to cash in on my best bet of UConn team total Under 74.5.
What's hurt the Huskies throughout the season is how loose they've been with the ball. And instead of that issue getting better as the season goes on, it's gotten worse.
Their turnover rate has increased to nearly 20%, one of the worst in the sport. More than that, they also have one of the lowest forced turnover rates in the sport. When the math goes against you at this clip, it forces you to be very efficient defensively in the halfcourt. Marquette should be able to defend well there.
It's true that despite a whopping 25 turnovers in the first matchup, Connecticut still managed to score 77 points. However, regarding what's repeatable, the turnovers have a much more realistic chance of occurring again than everything else.
The Huskies made 12 threes in that game, only the third time in conference play that they've hit double-digits from deep. In addition, they shot a 73 eFG% from the field that day, their highest mark of the season.
Was this the case of a Golden Eagles defense being exposed? I don't think so at all.
According to Synergy, most of those threes were classified as "guarded," and this is a Marquette defensive unit that has been better than its offense most of the season. It ranks in the 20th-25th range in mostly any definable defensive metric coming into this game, so I'll bet on some shot regression from the first matchup and the pace staying relatively slow.
Marquette vs UConn same-game parlay (SGP)
UConn team total Under 74.5
Taris Reed Over 12.5 points
Let's take the value on a non-correlation parlay and grab Taris Reed to exceed his points total along with our best bet.
While the Huskies don't have many offensive advantages in the halfcourt, they can have some success in the post. Reed has been playing well over the last three games. He's exceeded this point total in three straight games, including a 24-point outburst in his previous game against Providence.
While he didn't have much success in the first matchup, his newfound confidence gives me faith in him to exploit his mismatch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Marquette vs UConn odds
Marquette vs UConn live odds
Marquette vs UConn opening odds
- Spread: Marquette +3.5 | UConn -3.5
- Moneyline: Marquette +145 | UConn -170
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 | Under 144.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Marquette vs UConn betting trend to know
Marquette has hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 37 games (+8.80 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. UConn.
How to watch Marquette vs UConn
| Location | Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, CT |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Marquette vs UConn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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