Florida State vs North Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tar Heels Keep Pouring It On

The North Carolina Tar Heels will look to continue their hot start as they host the Florida State Seminoles in the ACC opener for both teams on Saturday afternoon.

North Carolina is ranked No. 17 in the country and has won all four of its home games this year. The Tar Heels are again favorites in the college basketball odds over Florida State, which blew a 17-point lead on Wednesday to the Georgia Bulldogs. 

For the Seminoles to have a chance in this one, they’ll need to slow down a Tar Heels offense that has been overpowering most opponents this season.

We’ll take a look at whether they’re up to the task in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Florida State vs. North Carolina on December 2.

Florida State vs North Carolina best odds

Florida State vs North Carolina picks and predictions

The Tar Heels are averaging a blistering 87.4 points per game this year. That number is perhaps even better than it seems, as compared to many teams with gaudy numbers, North Carolina has already played some reasonable opponents. 

Sure, the Tar Heels have seen their share of cupcakes, but they’ve also faced off against the Villanova Wildcats, Arkansas Razorbacks, and Tennessee Volunteers. They eclipsed the 80-point mark in all of those games, putting up 100 against Tennessee on Wednesday. No opponent has held North Carolina under 77 points all season long. 

It’s no secret that North Carolina has talent. Sure, the Tar Heels faded last year, turning down an NIT invitation after being the national runner-up the previous season. But senior guard RJ Davis (19.4 ppg) is back to lead a deep, balanced squad that has the weapons to compete with anyone it faces. Armando Bacot (16.7 ppg, 11.6 rebounds per game), Harrison Ingram (15.0 ppg), Cormac Ryan (11.5 ppg,) and others are just the tip of the iceberg on a team that has been playing eight different players for at least 15 minutes per game. 

Florida State may have trouble weathering that storm. The Seminoles are giving up 72.8 points per game, which ranks outside the Top 200 in the nation. They’ve also been getting beaten to the ball, with opponents outrebounding them by 1.7 boards per game. That’s a poor matchup against the Tar Heels, who have grabbed 6.5 more rebounds per game than their opponents. 

Maybe it’s obvious to say that the Tar Heels are the better team in this matchup. The real question is whether North Carolina can cover the double-digit spread, which is rarely a sure thing in a major conference game. There are a couple of reasons why I think it might be up to the task on Saturday.

First, UNC has played excellent defense to go along with its high-scoring attack. None of North Carolina’s raw numbers look that impressive — it is allowing 72.3 points per game — but it’s important to remember that the Tar Heels are playing at a fast pace and have already squared off against solid competition. The KenPom ratings have them as the No. 37 team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, which takes these factors into account.

Secondly, that quick pace works in the favor of bettors who want to see a North Carolina blowout. The more points that are scored, the more realistic a wider margin of victory becomes. With both teams favoring a faster pace, the Tar Heels will have plenty of opportunities to blow this one open. 

North Carolina should win this game by double digits on a neutral court, and it will have the added benefit of playing at home on Saturday. I’m laying the points with the Tar Heels.

My best bet: North Carolina -12.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Florida State vs North Carolina same-game parlay

North Carolina -12.5

Over 158.5

RJ Davis Over 18.5 points

+460 at DraftKings

I’m expecting North Carolina to come out on top in a run-and-gun affair, and my same-game parlay reflects this. I’m taking the Tar Heels to cover the spread, but I’ll also be backing the Over at a fairly high 158.5 points. Both teams like to push the pace, and Florida State has shown scoring punch as well this season, so we should be able to hit the Over. 

Finally, I’m adding in a bet on RJ Davis to score Over 18.5 points. Davis has scored at least 23 points in each of his last three games — the first three games that North Carolina has played against serious opponents. With a high-scoring game expected, Davis should once again easily surpass his scoring prop to bring home this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida State vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

North Carolina opened this game as a 12.5-point favorite. That line has held steady and remains the consensus spread at nearly all sites. You will find -110 odds on both sides at nearly all books, though I did see a couple shading the Tar Heels down to -108.

Both teams are off to solid starts for bettors this season. Florida State is 4-2 against the spread on the year, while North Carolina has compiled a 4-3 ATS mark.

The Tar Heels are the deeper, more talented team in this matchup, and that should show over the course of 40 minutes of fast-paced basketball. They’re also the better defensive team, and I expect the Seminoles to have at least a few stretches where they struggle to score while UNC pulls away. I’m taking North Carolina and laying the points this afternoon.

The total on this game opened at 157 points flat. That number has been bet up, and the consensus Over/Under now sits at 158.5 points. Virtually all books are offering -110 odds on both sides of the market at that total.

These have both been Over teams to start the year. The Over has posted a 4-2 record in Florida State’s games so far, and has gone an even better 5-2 when North Carolina takes the court this season.

I’m expecting more of the same on Saturday. Both teams are averaging north of 80 points per game, and while the Tar Heels can play some defense, they still allow plenty of points simply because of their pace. Florida State may not go quite as fast, but the Seminoles are still on the quicker side — and they don’t enjoy the benefits of an elite defensive squad like North Carolina does. I’m leaning towards the Over.

Florida State vs North Carolina betting trend to know

North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. North Carolina.

Florida State vs North Carolina game info

Florida State vs North Carolina key injuries

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