Unlike most Final Four foes, the Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers know each other very well. These SEC schools meet for the second time this season in the national semifinal on Saturday, with oddsmakers expecting a very tight game.
I dive into the long list of Florida vs. Auburn props for this all-SEC semifinal, giving my best March Madness picks and Florida vs. Auburn predictions for April 5.
Florida vs Auburn props
- Johni Broome Over 10.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
- Tahaad Pettiford Over 1.5 3-pointers (-125 at bet365)
- Alex Condon Over 10.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Florida vs Auburn Final Four props
Johni Broome Over 10.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
Johni Broome has wrangled 11 or more rebounds in all four NCAA Tournament games so far. That includes 14 rebounds in 29 minutes versus Michigan State in the Elite Eight, pulling down some of those boards with one good arm after suffering an elbow injury.
The 6-foot-10 Broome is a beast on the glass, averaging almost 11 rebounds per game (with an average of 30 minutes per contest) on the year and topping this current 10.5-rebound total in five of the Auburn Tigers' six postseason games.
Broome is reportedly healthy and ready to go against the Florida Gators in the Final Four. He had 11 rebounds in the Tigers’ loss to UF at home on February 8, including six offensive rebounds against a talented frontcourt for the Gators.
So far in the tournament, Florida gave up 11 rebounds to Texas Tech star big JT Toppin and 10 boards to UConn forward Samson Johnson. Saturday’s game will be played at a much quicker pace than those previous matchups, which means more field goal attempts and more rebounding opportunities.
Player projections for Saturday’s semifinal call for around 13 rebounds from Broome, which is more than enough to go Over this total of 10.5 boards and provides great value with the Over priced at EVEN money.
Tahaad Pettiford Over 1.5 3-pointers (-125 at bet365)
Tahaad Pettiford has been the ultimate X-factor for Auburn in the NCAA Tournament and earned himself All-South Region honors for his performance so far.
The frenetic freshman gives the Tigers a huge boost off the bench and is playing major minutes in crucial spots, averaging more than 17 points per game in the Big Dance.
Plenty of those points are coming from beyond the arc, where Pettiford is a collective 8-for-22 in Auburn’s four NCAA outings, making two triples in each of those games.
He went 2-for-5 from deep against Florida on February 8, finishing with 14 points in 25 minutes, and will need to provide that same pop from the perimeter if the Gators’ guards get hot from downtown like they did in that first meeting.
Florida has checked opponents to just 29.6% shooting from deep on the year, but comes out of a perimeter-challenged SEC.
It allowed Texas Tech to get hot from distance in the Elite Eight (10-for-27), and according to ShotQualityBets, UF ranks 339th and 312th in defending “off the dribble” and “catch and shoot” 3-pointers – two offensive sets in which Auburn rates out 33rd and 44th, respectively.
Player models range from 1.4 to 2.1 triples from Pettiford, who isn’t afraid to let it fly from long range.
Alex Condon Over 10.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Alex Condon has been quiet for the Gators in the NCAA Tournament. After opening the Round of 64 with 12 points, the 6-foot-11 sophomore has scored just five, six, and seven points in UF’s last three games.
That diminished output isn’t all on Condon. He did suffer an ankle injury against Maryland in the Sweet 16, limiting him to only 14 minutes. He played through that nagging injury a day later, going 2-for-6 from the floor and scoring seven points against TTU.
The ankle has been an issue for the Aussie for the past two months. He missed three games in the middle of February due to that bum wheel and was limited in minutes upon his return. However, with a week off between rounds, this will be the healthiest Condon has been since getting hurt back on February 11.
He had a great game in the upset win over Auburn on February 8, going 7-for-10 from the field along with 3 of 5 from the foul line to score 17 points.
His versatility and range can pull bigger defenders away from the basket and he’s been excellent at drawing contact and getting to the stripe, leading UF in FTAs. The Tigers have a solid defense but do get whistled a lot, and that could mean bonus buckets for Condon from the stripe.
While his scoring prop sunk to 7.5 points O/U versus Texas Tech (due to that ankle injury leaving his workload up in the air), Condon’s previous points props have ranged from 10.5 to 13.5, with most at 11.5 points or higher.
Player models sit right on the fence with Condon’s projection, ranging from 9.7 to 10.2 points. I believe Condon has a higher ceiling with this extended break benefiting his health.
Not intended for use in MA.
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