SEC play gets rolling this morning when the undefeated 13-0 Florida Gators travel to Lexington to face the 11-2 Kentucky Wildcats.
Find out why my Florida vs Kentucky predictions see plenty of points to go around as I serve up my college basketball picks for Saturday, January 4.
Florida vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Over 167 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Sparks will fly in Rupp Arena, as the Florida Gators rank ninth in the country — averaging 87.4 points per game — and the Kentucky Wildcats rank third, averaging 89.0 per contest.
The Cats are no strangers to lighting up the scoreboard at home, averaging 95.4 ppg. They scored 93 against Louisville, so their score is not just inflated by playing bad opponents. Meanwhile, the Gators have only played one true road game but scored 87 points in a win over Florida State.
Both teams are good from deep, but they don’t just rely on that to rack up the points. The Gators rank 39th in 2-point field goals per game, and the Wildcats rank 34th. A big reason for this is both are excellent in the fastbreak.
Obviously, both teams like to play fast with those fastbreak points, and it leads to more possessions. Kentucky ranks 33rd in possessions per game at 74.8, and Florida ranks 75th at 73.6. The Cats rank 43rd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, and the Gators rank 81st.
While both defenses are good in terms of points allowed per game, a lot of that has to do with their level of opponents.
The Gators allowed 84 points to North Carolina and the Wildcats allowed 85 points to both Ohio State and Louisville and 89 points to Gonzaga.
Both defenses have shown vulnerability to better competition, and both offenses like to play fast. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game in today's SEC opener.
Florida vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Over 166.5
Kentucky moneyline
Otega Oweh Over 15.5 points
Alijah Martin Over 15.5 points
Kentucky is much more experienced in big games this year, and its strength of schedule ranks 36th compared to 164th for Florida. The Gators will also face their biggest road test of the season, and it is only their second one.
Otega Oweh has been the Cats' most consistent scorer. He's scored 16 or more points six times this season and does not rely on threes and jumpers for his points.
Alijah Martin has scored 16 or more points in three of the past five games, and the Cats have struggled with guards that can score around the rim.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida vs Kentucky odds
Florida vs Kentucky live odds
Florida vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Florida +3.5 | Kentucky -3.5
- Moneyline: Florida +130 | Kentucky -155
- Over/Under: Over 167 | Under 167
Odds courtesy of bet365
Florida vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the game total Over in 16 of their last 22 games at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Florida vs Kentucky
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 11:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Florida vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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