Two 12-win teams meet in a Big East conference affair, with Villanova welcoming Georgetown to Pennsylvania.
The Wildcats have dominated this series with the Hoyas recently with nine wins in the last 10 meetings, and I don't see that changing today thanks to Eric Dixon.
Read on for my Georgetown vs. Villanova predictions and college basketball picks for Monday, January 20.
Georgetown vs Villanova prediction
My best bet
Eric Dixon Over 23.5 points (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a rough matchup for the Georgetown Hoyas. The Villanova Wildcats team total, the spread and a few player props are all in play. However, Eric Dixon's points prop Over stands out most.
The Hoyas' individual defense has struggled this season. This unit may come into this game with a Top 25 defensive efficiency rating via Bart Torvik, but some of its issues are masked because it's been solid at the rim, along with a few other spots.
Georgetown has allowed 1.01 points per possession on plays defended as "dribble jumpers" or isolation plays. That's in the Bottom 7% of college basketball. Dixon is the perfect player to take advantage of that.
There are not many players getting isolation clear-outs called for them on such a regular basis as Dixon. He's getting an average volume of nearly eight 3-point attempts per game, a usage rate near the top of college basketball, and a ranking of 15th nationally in percentage of team shots taken.
The volume that Dixon is getting on a nightly basis makes this attractive. It's sometimes difficult for books to accurately price because it's not a typical load for a college basketball player to carry. This matchup, and what he's done in similar ones, adds to the appeal.
Dixon has three 30-point games this season, and they've all come against teams that fit a similar profile defensively with Georgetown. His last came against Cincinnati, which ranks in the Bottom 19% defensively against the dribble jumper. Before that, it was Maryland, which is nearly the same. Lastly, before that, it came in the season's opening game against Columbia, which ranks in the Bottom 13% of such sets.
In other words, there's a direct correlation to Dixon scoring against teams that struggle defensively here, and his opponent tonight may be the worst he's played this season at defending such spots on the floor.
Georgetown vs Villanova same-game parlay (SGP)
Eric Dixon Over 23.5 points
Villanova -8.5
It's primarily a projections play as I pair Villanova -8.5 with my best bet. I made this -10.5 with home-court advantage accounted for.
I don't see how the Hoyas get any regular stops to stay in contact with Villanova, and I think it could snowball in a hostile environment. It's also hard not to factor in the mental hurdle for Georgetown, as they've lost their last two visits to Finneran Pavilion by an average of over 30+ points.
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Georgetown vs Villanova odds
Georgetown vs Villanova live odds
Georgetown vs Villanova opening odds
- Spread: Georgetown +9 | Villanova -9
- Moneyline: Georgetown +320 | Villanova -400
- Over/Under: Over 136.5 | Under 136.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Georgetown vs Villanova betting trend to know
Villanova has covered in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+2.10 Units / 9% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Georgetown vs. Villanova.
How to watch Georgetown vs Villanova
| Location: | Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 1-20-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Georgetown vs Villanova key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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