Gonzaga vs Santa Clara Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Still Have Santa Clara's Number

The non-conference portion of the schedule brought more losses than usual for Mark Few’s vaunted No. 23-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs. 

Now, whether that was primarily thanks to a very challenging schedule or the result of a program taking a slight step back this season is a question we likely won’t get an answer to until tournament time. 

Gonzaga is expected to run through the West Coast Conference again this season, rattling off two home victories to start conference play. Next up is a road visit against one of the top challengers in the WCC, the Santa Clara Broncos.

Looking at the college basketball odds, Gonzaga is a 7.5-point favorite while the total resides at 158.5. 

Is that a fair number for a team that’s won 26 straight games in this matchup? Check out our free college basketball picks for Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara on Thursday, January 11 to find out. 

Gonzaga vs Santa Clara best odds

Gonzaga vs Santa Clara picks and predictions

Mark Few’s Gonzaga Bulldogs teams are generally centered around a dominant big man. This year’s monolith is Wyoming transfer Graham Ike, who leads the team in scoring (15.2), rebounding (8), and blocks (0.7) per game.

Those may not quite be Drew Timme numbers, but let’s be fair — Timme’s numbers are hard to come by, and there’s a reason why he’ll be sorely missed in the Pacific Northwest. 

Anton Watson (13.8 ppg) joins Ike in what’s one of the sport’s best frontcourts, while Braden Huff (10.5 ppg) comes off the bench to provide instant offense down low. Guards Ryan Nembhard (12.5 ppg) and Nolan Hickman (12.7 ppg) have played admirably, but depth is a concern for a team running a thin rotation. 

Few has been forced to run a shallow lineup this year in which only seven players average more than 15 minutes per game. 

It’s easy for the casual observer to overlook WCC opponents, but the Santa Clara Broncos are a quality team coached by a de facto wizard in Herb Sendek.

It’s not easy to lose your top five scorers from a 23-win mid-major team — especially not when one of them is star guard Brandin Podziemski, who was selected 19th overall by the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Draft — but Sandek has retooled on the fly to roster a talented and dangerous squad. 

Former Gonzaga recruit and Arizona transfer Adama Bal leads the Broncos in scoring (15.9) and is fresh off a 28-point explosion against Pepperdine. He’s shooting 41% from 3-point range and pairs with sharpshooter Carlos Marshall (14.2 ppg, 47.3% from three) to form a dangerous backcourt. 

The Broncos also have size with two 7-footers (Christoph Tilly and Francisco Caffaro) and 6-foot-9 Johnny O’Neil to throw at the Zags’ dominant frontcourt. Per KenPom, this roster ranks fifth in the nation in average height. 

After fielding three 20+ win teams in the last four seasons and producing two first-round NBA Draft picks, it’s well past time to give Sandek his flowers. That being said, he has his work cut out for him here against a Gonzaga team that has dominated this matchup, winning 26 straight and 47 of the last 49 meetings. 

That’s a level of dominance I simply cannot overlook.

Few’s squad had a lot of chances to notch quality wins in non-conference play and came up empty. That means that they’ll need to be dominant in WCC play yet again this year to avoid further seeding repercussions. Now is the time to take care of business.

Gonzaga should dominate the paint in this matchup regardless of Santa Clara’s height. That size may matter on paper, but the Zags are much more talented and productive on the interior. They’ve won 10 of the last 11 meetings by at least 12 points and I don’t see a reason for that to change — this isn’t Few’s most talented team ever, but it’s also not Sendek’s. 

The Zags rank 90 spots higher in KenPom and I expect them to handle business on the road. I think this line is a bit deflated as an overcorrection after a difficult non-conference slate and I'll buy the dip.

My best bet: Gonzaga -7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Gonzaga vs Santa Clara same-game parlay

Gonzaga -8

Gonzaga team total Over 83.5

+156 at DraftKings

Here’s a two-leg SGP comprised of my best bet on Gonzaga minus the points and its team total over 83.5. 

The Zags have scored with reckless abandon against Santa Clara, scoring at least 81 points in nine straight matchups while averaging 92.7 ppg. This year’s Broncos team isn’t fearsome defensively, ranking 122nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, which is a concern against Gonzaga’s Top-20 offense. 

Both teams like to play with pace — Gonzaga ranks 66th in adjusted tempo, while Santa Clara isn’t far behind at 83rd — so there should be plenty of possessions in this game.

Efficiency combined with volume leads me to believe that Few’s squad should pour in a plentiful amount of buckets in this matchup, so I like this team total Over a fair amount and considered making it my best bet for the column. It’s a good look as a single bet as well. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Gonzaga vs Santa Clara spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has seen a bit of movement in Santa Clara’s direction, opening at +9.5 in most locations while moving down as far as +7.5 at some spots at the time of this writing. The total has been headed upward, opening at 156 but currently residing between 158 and 158.5 depending on where you look. 

Be sure to shop around using our college basketball odds tool and track future fluctuations using our line movement tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

Taking a closer look at the total, these teams have cashed the Under in three straight meetings. That’s not due to a lack of points, however, as both teams have combined to average 155 points per game in those matchups. 

Rather, it’s been due to a high expectation for points. This is the lowest the total has been in any of the last four meetings — twice it’s been set at 163.5 and twice (and most recently) it’s been 159.5. 

If we go back a bit further in the history between these two, they’ve combined to hit the Over in 13 of their last 19 meetings. 

It’s therefore understandable why the total has ticked up from the opener of 156 as there’s yet another expectation of plentiful scoring considering both teams play at a fast tempo and combine to average 161.5 ppg this season. 

Gonzaga vs Santa Clara betting trend to know

Gonzaga has won 26 straight games against Santa Clara. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara.

Gonzaga vs Santa Clara game info

Gonzaga vs Santa Clara key injuries

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