Grand Canyon vs UT Arlington Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Grant-Foster Shines for Antelopes

The 2024 Hercules Tires WAC Basketball Tournament finale goes down from the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night between the No. 3 seed UT Arlington Mavericks (20-13, 13-7 WAC) and the No. 1 seed Grand Canyon Antelopes (28-4, 17-3).

The Mavericks stormed past No. 6 seed Stephen F. Austin 109-78 in the quarterfinals and narrowly hung on for an 87-84 win over No. 2 seed Tarleton State in the semifinals. The Antelopes received a double-bye and then notched an 80-72 win over No. 4 seed Seattle in the semifinals last night. 

Looking at conference tournament odds, the Antelopes are 6.5-point favorites while the total resides at 145. 

What’s the best bet for this championship game? Check out my college basketball picks and predictions for UT Arlington vs. Grand Canyon on Saturday, March 16.

Grand Canyon vs UT Arlington best odds

Grand Canyon vs UT Arlington picks and predictions

The Grand Canyon Antelopes will be a trendy upset pick in the NCAA Tournament — if they make it there. Bryce Drew’s squad has been very impressive this season with a 28-4 record and is currently projected as a No. 12 seed over at Bracket Matrix. 

They rank 54th overall in KenPom and have a well-balanced profile, slotting in at 62nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 57th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Antelopes prefer to attack the paint, ranking 38th nationally in percentage of shots taken at the rim (44.6%) and ninth in free throw attempts per game (24.4). 

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, however. Before one can start discussing first-round NCAA Tournament upset picks, they first have to lock up a bid by winning their conference tournament final. Grand Canyon faces the UT Arlington Mavericks in the WAC finale on Saturday and the line is just under a touchdown in favor of the Antelopes. 

UT Arlington is looking to cut down the nets in Vegas under first-year head coach KT Turner. The Mavericks rank 116th in KenPom — 111th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 137th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They like to crank up the pace, ranking 36th in adjusted tempo while dropping 77 ppg. 

Turner’s squad plays a deep rotation as nine players average at least 14 minutes per game, six of whom average above 20. Offensively they like to shoot to share the rock (35th nationally with 15.9 assists per game) and shoot from deep (41st with 8.9 made 3-pointers per game). 

These teams played twice in the regular season with Grand Canyon picking up the sweep. First, Drew’s squad won 76-69 in Phoenix while winning the rebound battle 36-25. Then, Grand Canyon went on the road and won 67-61 despite having its worst shooting performance of the season. The Antelopes shot just 16-for-54 (29.6%) and 4-for-19 from three (21.1%) but forced 22 turnovers and survived at the line, knocking down 31 of 36 free throw attempts. 

Both teams have been terrific for bettors to get behind — UT Arlington is an absurd 23-8 ATS while Grand Canyon is 17-13-1 ATS. What gives in the Saturday finale? The Antelopes won the first matchup by seven and the second by six, so naturally the books have split the middle and made the line 6.5. 

What stands out to me is that Grand Canyon shot poorly in both matchups. I already mentioned the terrible shooting slump it had on the road, but it also shot just 37.5% from the floor in their home gym in the first matchup. I find it unlikely that the Antelopes continue to underperform and post another clunker against a UT Arlington defense that isn’t anything special. 

Both teams are better on the offensive end than the defensive end. According to Bart Tovik, UT Arlington ranks 51st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 110th in defensive efficiency since February 1. In that time span, Grand Canyon ranks 42nd on offense and 130th on defense. 

The first two matchups went Under the total, but that was due to uncharacteristically bad shooting days from Grand Canyon. This is a pace-up spot as UT Arlington likes to get out and run, and yet the total has dipped from 150.5 in the last meeting to 145 this time around. That’s a steep move and I think it’s an overreaction, so I’ll buy the dip with an Over play. 

Both teams have been profitable to the Over this year, as UT Arlington is 19-12 O/U and Grand Canyon is 16-14-1 O/U. The Mavericks have had two high-scoring games in this gym to start the tournament, averaging 179 total points per game. The Antelopes’ lone game in this tournament saw a healthy 152 total points. 

Give me the Over for the WAC Tournament final. 

My best bet: Over 145 (-110 at bet365)

Grand Canyon vs UT Arlington same-game parlay

Over 145

Tyon Grant-Foster Over 18.5 points

Tyon Grant-Foster Over 1.5 threes made

Bonus bet promo available

+375 at DraftKings

Big players step up in big games and there’s no bigger star on the court at Orleans Arena than Grand Canyon’s Tyon Grant-Foster. The sixth-year wing has bounced around the country from Indian Hills Community College, Kansas, and Depaul before finding a home in Phoenix. He’s making the most of his time in the WAC, averaging 19.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. 

He’s a dominant force and has taken his game even a step further lately, averaging 24.3 ppg across his last four outings while eclipsing 18.5 points each time. In a pace-up game like this one, it’s hard to envision him not leaving a lasting mark — especially after dropping 28 points on Seattle a night ago. 

He saw an uptick in 3-point volume in that matchup, hitting 3 of 8 attempts from behind the arc. That’s a shot that the Mavericks have been prone to allowing, ranking 270th in 3-point defense (34.9%). 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grand Canyon vs UT Arlington spread and Over/Under analysis

Grand Canyon opened -5.5 at some spots before jumping a half-point to -6. Some shops are offering -6.5, so the line movement may continue in that direction. Track any further changes using our college basketball line movement tool. 

The road team covered the spread both times during the regular season. UT Arlington covered as 11.5-point underdogs in the first matchup while Grand Canyon won by the hook at 5.5-point favorites in the second. 

UT Arlington has been red hot, going 8-2 ATS across its last 10 games. The Mavericks are the higher-rated team per Bart Torvik since the start of February, checking in at 68th overall — four spots ahead of Grand Canyon at 72nd. The Mavericks are 11-2 straight up in that span while the Antelopes are 9-2. 

The Mavericks have been severely underrated by oddsmakers all year long and it’d be difficult for me to bet against them with that being the case. Still, the Antelopes are the better team and are a deserved favorite. 

Consider this a stay-away for me, but the fact that UT Arlington has played well defensively in the first two matchups, is one of the hottest teams in the country, and has been one of the most profitable teams against the spread all season makes me lean toward the underdog. 

Grand Canyon vs UT Arlington betting trend to know

UT Arlington is 14-4 ATS in games played away from home.  Find more college basketball betting trends for Grand Canyon vs. UT Arlington.

Grand Canyon vs UT Arlington game info

Grand Canyon vs UT Arlington key injuries

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