Houston vs Iowa State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cyclones Are Houston's Problem

The No. 2-ranked Houston makes the road trip to face the Iowa State Cyclones in what is sure to be a stern test. The host team hopes it'll be another "Hilton Magic" case for the Cyclones. 

Iowa State will enter today with a perfect home record on the season, aiming to continue that mark in a place that has been a fortress for the better part of the decade. Houston will have plenty to say about that, and the Cougars — yet again — look like a machine.

Houston will come into this matchup playing a soft schedule but looking very dominant in the process, with an undefeated record and only two games being within single digits.

Let's take a closer look at the college basketball odds for Houston vs. Iowa State on Tuesday, January 9th, and make our college basketball picks.

Houston vs Iowa State best odds

Houston vs Iowa State picks and predictions

There's a lot to dissect here. When these two teams look at one another, they look in the mirror.

Both are elite defensively. They'll each enter this matchup ranking first and second, respectively, in defensive efficiency, as Iowa State allows just .83 points per possession. At the same time, the Houston Cougars are even more impressive, allowing an eye-popping .75 points per possession. They are both elite in the paint, too, each ranking in the Top 10 in rim defense. That makes handicapping this game dicey because you're relying on jump shots to go for each team, which can be unpredictable.

With that in mind, I'm looking at the prop market and targeting Iowa State's best shooter, Tamin Lipsey, and we're grabbing him to go over his 13.5-point total.

There's a thought process that shooters shoot better on their home courts, and that has certainly been true for Lipsey. He's shooting 49% from the field in home games this season compared to 42% on the road. From beyond the 3-point line, he sees an even more significant boost, shooting just over 43% from deep compared to 28% on the road. I expect him to get a boost from playing at home again in this matchup that may not be accurately reflected in this number.

Outside of that, I mentioned at the onset how this one will likely come down to who makes the jump shots, and Lipsey is a great candidate. 

He enters this game in the Top 10% of college basketball players in spot-up scoring, shooting 44% from the field on these sets with an eFG% of just over 60%. This is the lone trouble spot for the Houston defense. Occasionally, you will find open shots and they will just bet on you not making them. The Cougs' numbers on the season against spot-up shooters are otherworldly but that's more of a reflection of the soft schedule they've faced. When they face teams that run fluid, efficient offensive sets (like Iowa State), they give up open looks, though some of that is by design. The only problem in this matchup is that some of that design will see Lipsey profiting from it, which we'll take advantage of. 

This is my favorite bet for this game because everything aligns. The matchup is good, and the situation of Lipsey being at home also favors it. Lipsey has not had a real breakout game as a sophomore, but he strikes me as a player who can be a big game producer and we could see that breakout game tonight.

My best bet: Tamin Lipsey Over 13.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Houston vs Iowa State same-game parlay

Tamin Lipsey Over 13.5 points

Iowa State moneyline

+242 at FanDuel

We're pairing Lipsey with the Iowa State moneyline and keeping things simple.

How can I put this? Houston could be completely fraudulent. Now, I trust the track record of the program and its coach, Kelvin Sampson, however, close calls against the only decent competition it's faced in Xavier and Texas A&M make you wonder. Tonight, it is too difficult of a task to ask of a team that hasn't faced much adversity.

Iowa State shoots the ball well at home, and I'm not sure Houston finds enough offense to overcome that. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Houston vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis

I like Iowa State to get the job done tonight at a moneyline price of around +110 or better. There is a lot of convergence here that sets up a rough spot for Houston, and I have to take the value in the home team with such a good track record in its building.

Bettors have moved this number down since it's open. According to our Covers matchup page, this number opened with Houston favored by four and has since moved to 2.5. That speaks volumes to bettors, seeing a lot of what I've discussed above and how there's a chance the Cougars could not be ready for this moment.

I have virtually no opinion on the total. It was set at 131, and my numbers make it 132.5. 

There's a slight edge to the Over, especially with the potential for late-game fouling to extend the game higher than usual, but it's not actionable. Given how similar these teams are, this game could take a bit to settle in, which means you may find some in-game live-over appealing. However, there is no pregame play for me. 

Houston vs Iowa State betting trend to know

Iowa State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games at home (+10.70 Units / 3% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Iowa State.

Houston vs Iowa State game info

Houston vs Iowa State key injuries

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