Houston vs SMU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cougars Claw Way to Victory

The number two team in the nation will need to go on the road on Thursday night when the Houston Cougars travel north to Dallas to face off with the Southern Methodist Mustangs in an AAC clash.

Houston is an impressive 23-2 overall and 11-1 in AAC play. The Cougars are ranked number one in both the NET rankings and KenPom rankings, while SMU is 9-17 overall and 4-9 in AAC play. The Mustangs have lost nine of their last 12, including to this Cougs team.

Will the Stangs be able to pull off a massive upset at home? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Houston vs. SMU on Thursday, February 16 to find out.

Houston vs SMU best odds

Houston vs SMU picks and predictions

The reason Houston has been so consistent this season is its ability to control the pace of the game with its lockdown defense and efficient offense. The Cougars rank first nationally in points allowed per game at 55.0 and are yet to allow more than 77 points in any outing. 

Houston ranks 348th in adjusted tempo because it knows it can beat its opponents by limiting the number of possessions in the game. The Cougars rank fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency despite only averaging 75.6 points per contest (92nd). Their ability to hold onto possession is a major reason. 

They also take great care of the ball — only averaging 9.6 turnovers per game — which ranks fifth in the nation. Houston averages 14.9 assists per contest, which is the eighth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country. This matchup is perfect against SMU, who allows 15.1 assists per game and only forces 3.5 turnovers per.

SMU is one of the worst shooting teams in the country at 42.0% from the field and 31.5% from the 3-point line. Meanwhile, Houston is the best at defending shooters, allowing opponents to average only 35.2% from the floor and 26.5% from downtown. It could get ugly for SMU offensively in this contest. 

In the first matchup in early January, Houston took advantage of those mismatches and won by 34 points at home. Although, the Cougars will likely be without freshman guard Terrance Arceneaux, who had 10 points, five rebounds, and a block in 19 minutes in the first matchup this season. However, he is eighth on the roster in minutes, so Houston should be able to manage without him. 

This matchup is completely one-sided and nothing short of some home magic will change that for the Mustangs. This is a big spread, but when a team is so much better than the other, there is no reason to not give the points. Houston should roll easily, especially on defense. 

My best bet: Houston -15.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Houston vs SMU spread analysis

In the first game between these two programs this season, SMU shot a miserable 30.6% from the floor and 3-for-20 from 3-point land. That is unlikely to change just because it's at home this time — with it shooting 42.3% from the floor at home and 41.7% on the road. 

The Mustangs already have seven losses in their barn this season. Two of those were by double digits — losing to Arizona State by 18 and New Mexico by 21 — and Houston is miles better than either of those programs. 

The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games and 9-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

These trends should continue Thursday night with another Houston blowout over its opponent. The Cougars are a perfect 8-0 in true road games and 7-1 ATS in those eight games, and they'll win in another blowout tonight. 

Houston vs SMU Over/Under analysis

Houston loves holding its opponents to low-scoring contests, but its totals have been so low that its season total still finds itself at 13-11-1 in favor of the Under. Meanwhile, the Over is 17-9 in SMU games this year.

The Over is 10-3 in the Cougars' last 13 road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-1 in their last five games overall. The Over is 10-1 in the Mustangs' 11 games following a straight up loss and 7-1 in their last eight home games. These are some strong trends towards the Over.

While I do not love SMU to light up the scoreboard by any means, it might not have to even reach 60 for this Over to hit. Houston is likely to be able to score at will, despite its slow tempo, against this porous defense. I would certainly lean towards the Over if taking the total in this matchup.

Houston vs SMU betting trend to know

The Cougars are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. SMU.

Houston vs SMU game info

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