The Tennessee Volunteers look to rebound off a loss to rival Vanderbilt as they welcome conference foe Mississippi State Bulldogs to the Food City Center.
Now, our Mississippi State vs. Tennessee predictions expect the Vols to bounce back behind a big game from Chaz Lanier. They'll see a Bulldogs team that recently hit a rough patch in the schedule with back-to-back losses to Auburn and Kentucky before a nice rivalry win over Mississippi.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 21st.
Mississippi State vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet
Chaz Lanier Over 17.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Chaz Lanier redemption arc? I think so.
Lanier was set to be the natural replacement for Dalton Knecht's scoring from a season ago. They're different players with unique skill sets but have similar playstyles, so the Tennessee Volunteers run similar schemes for Lanier as they did with Knecht. Early on, the Vols didn't skip much of a beat.
From the start of December until the first conference game against Arkansas, the 6-foot-4 senior scored 20+ points in five games. Then, the struggles came.
Lanier had the lowest-scoring trio of games, scoring 10, 10, and five vs. Florida, Texas, and Georgia, respectively. Now? Maybe he's got it back.
Against Vanderbilt, he made four threes for the first time since beating the Razorbacks and looked to be playing with confidence again.
By design, the Mississippi State Bulldogs defense gives up many open threes by under-screening and packing the paint.
In one of the matchups last season, the Bulldogs forced the Vols into taking their most 3-point attempts of the season, and, in the other, Knecht took advantage of that screening defense with four made threes and 28 points despite the loss.
I look for Lanier to have a similar impact here. Though he's a different player, he's used similarly and appears to have renewed confidence with a point to prove after a big missed free throw spoiled the one-point loss vs. Vandy.
"Motivation" is always there because a natural competitor always wants to win, but I suspect that aspect pushes him to hunt for his shot even more, and we'll be OK with the added volume.
Mississippi State vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Chaz Lanier Over 17.5 points
Zakai Zeigler Under 7.5 assists
We're pairing Zakai Zeigler Under 7.5 assists with our best bet and got a non-correlated payout boost for something reasonably correlated.
I suspect that the best route for Tennessee to score regularly in the halfcourt is through basic isolations because of the above-outlined issues, which will drop Zeigler's assist opportunities.
He'll still get his because he's one of the best point guards in the country and has excellent vision in the open court. Even still, this number is high for my liking.
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Mississippi State vs Tennessee odds
Mississippi State vs Tennessee live odds
Mississippi State vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi State +7 (-110) | Tennessee -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mississippi State +235 | Tennessee -290
- Over/Under: Over 140 (-110) | Under 140 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi State vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Tennessee has hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Mississippi State vs Tennessee
| Location: | Food City Center, Knoxville, TN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-21-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Mississippi State vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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