The North Carolina Tar Heels face off against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in ACC basketball action tonight.
The Tar Heels have been one of the biggest disappointments in NCAA hoops, and my North Carolina vs Wake Forest predictions expect another disappointing result today.
Here are my best college basketball picks for the latest edition of the Tobacco Road Rivalry on January 21.
North Carolina vs Wake Forest prediction
My best bet
Wake Forest moneyline (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The North Carolina Tar Heels fell to 12-7 after losing a nail-biter at home against Stanford on Saturday.
While six of North Carolina's seven losses have come against currently ranked teams, it is embarrassing UNC was beaten in Chapel Hill by a West Coast school outside the Top 75 of the KenPom ratings.
The Tar Heels are now 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games as they head to Winston-Salem to face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, who are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five.
The Demon Deacons are 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and can slow down this UNC attack.
The Tar Heels run isolation plays at the sixth-highest rate in the country and sit outside the Top 200 in 3-point percentage (32.6%). The Deacons have the top-rated defense in the country against iso plays per ShotQualityBets and they limit foes to 31.1% shooting from deep.
UNC has excellent guard play but doesn't have much size and can get bullied inside. Wake has more length in its backcourt while seven-foot center Efton Reid will have a significant height advantage in the paint.
The Tar Heels also sit outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate, and that lack of ball pressure allows opposing guards to set up and pick their spots. That's good news for senior Wake Forest guard Hunter Sallis, who has dropped 20+ points in seven straight games.
The Demon Deacons have gone a perfect 9-0 at home this season, while the Tar Heels are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three trips to Winston-Salem. Expect that trend to continue tonight.
North Carolina vs Wake Forest same-game parlay (SGP)
Wake Forest ML
Under 148.5
Ian Jackson Over 17.5 points
The Tar Heels were playing in shootouts at the start of the season, but they've tightened up their defense over the last few weeks while slowing down the pace.
In their last five games they've held foes to just 65.2 ppg on 41.9 eFG%. However, their offensive efficiency has also dropped, ranking a modest 99th in adjusted tempo during that span.
The Under has cashed in UNC's last six games and now that it's facing a defensively stingy Wake Forest squad, it should cash again.
One bright spot for the Tar Heels is five-star freshman Ian Jackson has broken out over the last month. The shooting guard tallied just six points on 1-for-8 shooting against Stanford but had dropped 18+ points in his previous seven contests, averaging 22.7 ppg over that span.
Taking the Over on Jackson's points, along with the Under on the game total and Wake on the ML, provides a big payout due to the correlation on the parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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North Carolina vs Wake Forest odds
North Carolina vs Wake Forest live odds
North Carolina vs Wake Forest opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina +1 | Wake Forest -1
- Moneyline: North Carolina -105 | Wake Forest -115
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Carolina vs Wake Forest betting trend to know
The Tar Heels are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Wake Forest.
How to watch North Carolina vs Wake Forest
| Location: | LJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-21-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
North Carolina vs Wake Forest key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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