The Houston Cougars and Virginia Cavaliers meet Saturday at John Paul Jones Arena.
The Cougars rebounded from their only loss of the season against Alabama, as Houston pounded North Carolina A&T on Tuesday night by a 74-46 count.
The Cavaliers have no such blemishes on the record so far, and Virginia has risen to No. 2 in The Associated Press’ Top 25 rankings.
Houston was previously No. 1 prior to the loss to the Tide. Perhaps Virginia will climb one more wrung on the ladder to the perch of college hoops if it can get by the Cougars.
Will the Cougars grab a signature win in this Top-5 battle? Or will the Hoos remain unbeaten? We’ll discuss in our college basketball picks and predictions for Houston vs. Virginia on Saturday, December 17.
Houston vs Virginia best odds
Houston vs Virginia picks and predictions
The Cougars used defense to rise to the top of the rankings, scoring decent victories over Oregon on the road back on November 20, and on a neutral floor against Saint Mary’s on December 3.
However, it suffered a 71-65 loss against Alabama at Fertitta Center, and the Cougars were knocked back down the rankings.
The Cavaliers are not only 8-0 so far, but have solid victories over Baylor, Illinois and Michigan. They also scored a 55-50 win over James Madison last time out, although Virginia has had some difficulty against the spread.
Like Houston, Virginia has used a suffocating defense to rise in the rankings. It has allowed 61 or fewer points in six of its eight games so far.
Virginia has allowed just 57.9 points per game to rank No. 12 in the country, although it has allowed the opposition to hit at a 34.4% clip from downtown. If the Cavaliers have an Achilles’ heel, it’s perimeter defense.
The bad news for the Hoos is that starting guard Reece Beekman is nursing a hamstring injury, and he is a question mark to play Saturday. He has racked up 10.0 ppg, 4.6 assists per game, and 2.9 rebounds per game, while leading the team at the charity stripe with an 85.7% mark. If Beekman wasn’t able to go, that would be problematic for UVA.
My best bet: Houston -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Houston vs Virginia spread analysis
The fact that the Cavaliers could be down a starter makes the Cougars the attractive play here.
Plus, Houston has racked up a 4-1 ATS mark in the past five road games, while going 17-6 ATS in the past 23 games overall dating back to last season. The Cougars are 11-5 ATS in the past 16 games against winning teams, too.
Virginia has failed to cover each of the past four after starting out 3-1 ATS. The Cavaliers are not only 0-4 ATS in the past four outings, UVA is 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 games at home.
Virginia has stacked plenty of non-covers lately, too, going 0-4 ATS in the past four following a straight-up win, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six after a non-cover.
While Virginia has four players who manage double-digit ppg, Houston has just one player going for 10 or more. Marcus Sasser has rolled up 16.2 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while leading the team with an 85.7 FT%. If Sasser gets into foul trouble, that can be a huge concern for the Cougars.
Houston vs Virginia Over/Under analysis
As mentioned above, it’s all about defense for both of these Top-5 teams. Houston has allowed just 49.4 ppg and 31.6 FG%, and both marks lead the nation, while limiting the opposition to 23.7% from behind the 3-point line, No. 3 in the country. Jamal Shead has registered 2.4 spg, while Ja’Vier Francis has averaged 1.9 blocked shots per game.
Those two are the players to watch when Houston is on D.
Houston has hit the Under at a 19-6-1 clip across the past 26 games overall, while the Under is 4-1-1 in the past six games on the road.
Virginia has cashed the Under in each of the past four games at home, while going 4-1 in the past five overall
Playing Under 112.5 seems like a rather low number, but look for Houston to scratch out a low-scoring win, making for a nice parlay opportunity in the process in this marquee game.
Houston vs Virginia betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1-1 in the past six games on the road for Houston, while the Under is 4-0 in the past four home games for Virginia. Find more College basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Virginia.
Houston vs Virginia game info
| Location: | John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date: | Saturday, December 17, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
