Some history will be made when the Auburn Tigers travel to face the Texas Longhorns tonight. Not only will it be the first time the two schools have met in the modern era, but it will also be the second time this century that the Longhorns have been double-digit home underdogs.
Auburn has looked like the best team in the country and our Auburn vs. Texas predictions anticipate Chad Baker-Mazara to be a key component to the Tigers winning a seventh straight game.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 7.
Auburn vs Texas prediction
My best bet
Chad Baker-Mazara Over 2.5 assists (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
It was good while it lasted, but we've finally reached the point of paying a premium for the Texas Longhorns to underperform.
After signing a massive recruiting class, expectations were sky-high. However, things have not gone according to plan and Texas enters conference play very much as an NCAA Tournament bubble team.
I'll root for them to cover or win this one to afford more potential fade spots, but I don't have a play on the side. I made Texas 9.5-point underdogs, and there's not much of an edge in the current number. Instead, I'm headed to the prop market to target Auburn Tigers guard Chad Baker Mazara going Over 2.5 assists.
Texas' defense is its biggest strength. Even with its struggles this season, it still ranks 35th in defensive efficiency while projecting slightly better. With that in mind, you may think this is somewhat of an odd play. However, what's significant about this is it directly attacks a weakness.
The Horns have only been below the national average in two defensive spots: transition and defending cutting bigs. Let's focus on the second aspect of this. What jumps out is Wooden Award frontrunner Johni Broome, who is a massive beneficiary in scoring on those cuts to the rim. You may not realize how much it benefits the Over on Baker-Mazara's assist props.
The Tigers have played seven games since returning from Maui. Their opponents have allowed more than a point per possession on "big cuts and rolls" in four. In those games, Baker-Mazara tallied the following in the assist category: 6, 3, 6, and 5.
In other words, he's gone Over this number each time they've been able to exploit Texas' primary issue. It shouldn't change here, and I'm comfortable backing an extremely efficient offense like Auburn to take advantage of an apparent defensive weakness.
Auburn vs Texas same-game parlay
Chad Baker-Mazara Over 2.5 assists
Tre Johnson Over 16.5 points
Broome's Over 19.5 points is highly correlated to our best bet. Unfortunately, the pricing certainly reflects that as well. So, I opted to add a Texas player to go Over his points and took Tre Johnson to clear 16.5. The future first-round pick comes off a really rough shooting game against Texas A&M. I expect him to benefit in a big way in a game that will have ample transition opportunities.
And if you want to add Broome's points, that will boost our SGP to +550.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Auburn vs Texas odds
Auburn vs Texas live odds
Auburn vs Texas opening odds
- Spread: Auburn -10 (-110) | Texas +10 (-110)
- Moneyline: Auburn -450 | Texas +350
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Auburn vs Texas betting trend to know
Auburn has hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.05 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Texas.
How to watch Auburn vs Texas
| Location: | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN 2 |
Auburn vs Texas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
