It's somewhat of a neutral game when the Alabama Crimson Tide and Illinois Fighting Illini face off for a Top 25 matchup.
The game will be held in Alabama for the fourth consecutive CM Classic, a signature event named after legendary coach CM Newton. While the Tide will have the advantage of playing in its home state, it is held in a different gym about an hour from the school's campus.
My Alabama vs Illinois predictions expect a low-scoring affair early on. Find out more in my college basketball picks for Wednesday, November 20.
Illinois vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
1H Under 80.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This handicap mainly centers around Illinois, the pace, and the uncertainties of an unknown venue for both teams.
Illinois has been relatively reliant on second-chance points so far. The Illini rank in the 97th percentile of college basketball in second-chance points per game at 17.3, but, more importantly, they sit closely to that number as it relates to the percentage of overall points that come from second-chance scores (19.4%).
In its latest matchup against Purdue, Alabama was able to post a defensive rebounding rate above its season average, which gives me confidence that it can continue. If it continues, that Top 50 rate for the Tide will do an effective job of limiting Illinois' second-chance scoring.
Meanwhile, Alabama's high-low offensive scheme involving Grant Nelson and "insert big here" has been run at even a higher volume this season than a year ago. Last season, the Tide ranked in the 88th percentile of frequency in these sets, and this year, that number has reached the Top 5% of college basketball.
Although Illinois will struggle with the high cut and roll from the Bama bigs, it can defend many of the big-to-big passing options. That's huge.
Coming into this game, the Illini have held opponents to well under the national average in high-low scoring. Even adjusted for the Illinois SOS, it should be able to significantly reduce a big part of the Alabama offense.
That could be enough in a unique setting that won't be conducive to the Tide going nuclear from deep. Give me this game to stay relatively low-scoring early on.
Illinois vs Alabama same-game parlay
1H Under 80.5
Grant Nelson Over 12.5 points
Nelson figures to be a key cog for the Tide tonight. Though Illinois hasn't struggled much to rebound, they have struggled to allow scores when they surrender second-chance. The Fighting Illini are allowing 1.03 points per possession on rebound and scramble plays, which is an area where Nelson has thrived.
He is also likely to be a factor in an area where Illinois struggles defensively: defending big cuts and rolls to the rim. I expect him to exceed this number tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Illinois vs Alabama odds
Illinois vs Alabama live odds
Illinois vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Illinois +6.5 | Alabama -6.5
- Moneyline: Illinois +270 | Alabama -340
- Over/Under: Over 167.5 | Under 167.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Illinois vs Alabama betting trend to know
Illinois has covered the spread in 22 of its last 36 games (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Alabama.
How to watch Illinois vs Alabama
| Location: | Legacy Arena, Birmingham, AL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-20-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
Illinois vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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