Illinois vs Maryland Odds, Picks and Predictions: Shannon Jr. Propels Fighting Illini in Conference Rematch

The Illinois Fighting Illini will try to continue their recent stretch of strong play in the Big Ten as they visit the Maryland Terrapins in this afternoon's college basketball odds.

Illinois (18-6) has won four of its last five in conference play and sits second in the conference behind Purdue. Meanwhile, Maryland (14-11) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 78-66 home win over Iowa.

The Illini are the better team in this matchup, but the Terrapins scored a 76-67 win the first time the two teams met this season. We’ll break down the rematch in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Illinois vs. Maryland on February 17.

Illinois vs Maryland best odds

Illinois vs Maryland picks and predictions

Illinois is undoubtedly one of the best offensive teams in the country, and Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.1 points per game) leads an offense that averages 83 points per game. 

However, it has been a renewed focus on defense that has led the Fighting Illini to its recent winning streak. After allowing 96 points to Northwestern on January 24, the defense has kicked into gear, holding three of their last five opponents to 75 points or less.

That may not sound like the most impressive milestone, but it has come against some quality offensive units in Big Ten play. Illinois will now face a much easier task against Maryland, which averages just 69.4 points per game — ranking 290th in the country.

Part of that is due to a slower pace of play, but even when the Terrapins do get around to shooting the ball, they don’t do it particularly well. They are shooting just 41.1% from the field and a dismal 28.9% from 3-point range, both of which rank among the worst marks in the nation.

Meanwhile, Illinois’ penchant for high-scoring games has disguised the fact that its defense is solid. KenPom ranks the Illini 39th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and their traditional numbers are solid as well. Opponents are shooting just 41.5% against Illinois, and it helps that the Illini hold opponents to just 16.4 free throw attempts per game.

So what went wrong for Illinois in the first meeting between these teams? The Illini shot a shockingly poor 32.8% from the field and only hit six threes in that contest. Maryland also held its ground in the rebounding battle, tying Illinois 41-41.

Most significant, however, was the fact that Shannon missed that game due to an injury. His presence was sorely missed, as Shannon is one of the Top 15 scorers in the country. In his last two games, Shannon has scored 28 and 31 points, and he alone will make a huge difference against the Terrapins tonight.

A healthy Illinois team should outclass Maryland on any given day, so I’m taking the Fighting Illini and laying the points.

My best bet: Illinois -2.5 (-102 at FanDuel)

Illinois vs Maryland same-game parlay

Illinois -2.5

Over 139.5

Terrence Shannon Jr. 20+ points

+423 at FanDuel

I’m taking Illinois on the spread, and that’s largely because I think its offense will show up in a way that it didn’t in the first matchup against Maryland. Given that expectation, I’ll also be taking the Over in my same-game parlay. Illinois has hit the Over in eight of its last nine games, and that trend should continue tonight.

We're also banking on Shannon to score at least 20 points, which only requires him to get to about his season average tonight. If Illinois’ offense performs as expected tonight, then the senior guard should easily hit that mark.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Illinois vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis

Illinois opened tonight’s game as a two-point favorite, and that line has moved to Illinois -2.5 at most books. However, you can get a discount on the Illini, with some sites offering as short as -102 on them.

Illinois has been good for bettors this year, going 13-9-2 against the spread. Maryland has not fared as well, putting up just a 10-15 ATS mark on the season.

The Illini are clearly the better team in this matchup, and the gap is rather wide. It was only the injury to Shannon that allowed Maryland’s defense to slow them down in their first meeting, and the Terrapins won’t have that luxury tonight. 

The total for tonight opened at 139.5 points and has remained steady at that number, with most books offering -110 odds on both sides of that number.

These two teams have played to opposite sides of the Over/Under this year. While the Over has a 16-8 record in Illinois’ games, the Under has the 17-8 edge when the Terrapins take the court this season.

Maryland has an excellent defense that has held its own against some of the best offenses the country has to offer. However, this Illini team will test that strength, both with its pace of place and its talent, now that Shannon is back to being their primary scorer.

While there’s some uncertainty as to which style of play will ultimately win out, I’m leaning toward playing the Over in this game.

Illinois vs Maryland betting trend to know

Maryland has gone 1-3 ATS in its last four games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Maryland.

Illinois vs Maryland game info

Illinois vs Maryland key injuries

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