Illinois vs Missouri Odds, Picks and Predictions: Make Your Shots Count

The Braggin’ Rights Game is a big deal, but the Illinois Fighting Illini hasn’t been able to brag much about their recent history with the Missouri Tigers.

The Fighting Illini have dropped four of their last five Braggin’ Rights Game matchups, but they are 8-2 and coming off a massive win over Colgate. 

Missouri has much to brag about in their series with Illinois. Still, they’ve managed to lose two straight contests and head home to their alternative home court (Enterprise Center), hoping to return to bragging with a victory over Illinois. 

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds and give you my best free college basketball picks for Illinois vs Missouri on Friday, December 22.

Illinois vs Missouri best odds

Illinois vs Missouri picks and predictions

The Braggin’ Rights Game is a longstanding, sometimes heated rivalry between Illinois and Missouri. It’s usually played just before December 24th, with the previous five encounters at Enterprise Center, a neutral court location and the home of the St. Louis Blues of the NHL. 

Missouri is the current Braggin’ Rights holder after defeating Illinois 93-71 in 2022, and like I said in the intro, the Tigers have won four of their last five encounters.

The Tigers won’t have it easy, and they have a significant injury they are dealing with. Iowa State transfer Caleb Grill was just starting to blend in but suffered a wrist injury that caused him to miss the past two matchups and the next five weeks. Grill was their second-leading rebounder, a solid perimeter defender, and was starting to find his stroke from downtown.

Illinois has no health issues to speak of, and they’ve played very well, with their only losses against top 15 teams Marquette and Tennessee. The Fighting Illini won their only Big Ten matchup thus far by 18 at Rutgers, and Terrence Shannon Jr. is playing at an elite level. 

Both teams score points from turnovers and allow several points per game from their turnovers. Illinois averages 12.1 from turnovers and allows 12.6 points. The Missouri split is 14.7 points from turnovers while allowing 12.2 ppg. These programs are below average at taking care of the ball, and we’ll see both squads getting swipes and turning them into buckets.

Those turnovers will occur because Illinois has learned that the faster the tempo, the better they do. The Fighting Illini have picked up the pace and will force the slower-playing Tigers into playing faster than they’d like, but the benefit for them is it will help them get a few more buckets in transition from Illini turnovers, and they’ll need them with Grill out of the lineup.

Finally, we have two programs that are very familiar with each other in a rivalry game on a neutral court. Enterprise Center is a big barn, and their fan bases will represent both sides well. Missouri is the better shooting team from everywhere. However, according to ShotQuality, they allow too many attacking shots at the rim, and the taller Fighting Illini might benefit from a few “add-ons or back away from getting posterized. The Braggin’ Rights Game has ended Over in four of their last five, and I expect Friday’s matchup to continue that trend. 

My best bet: Over 149 (-110 at DraftKings)

Illinois vs Missouri same-game parlay

Over 149

Missouri +6.5

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+248 at DraftKings

Like most rivalries, Friday night’s contest will be enjoyable to watch. If Illinois has its way, and I believe it will, this will be a fast-paced game with plenty of transition points scored. Missouri can shoot from downtown, and they are above average from the charity stripe.

Great shooting from downtown and solid free-throw shooting is how an underdog usually wins games or, at the very least, covers the spread. The Tigers are 3-8-0 ATS this season, but they get up for the Braggin’ Rights Game and are 4-1-0 ATS over their last five. Illinois is 7-3-0 ATS and 1-0-0 ATS on a neutral court, but they haven’t fared well recently against Missouri, and I don’t see them covering the -6.5. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Illinois vs Missouri spread and Over/Under analysis

This Braggin’ Rights Game has produced some exciting results. Missouri won last year's matchup 93-71 after jumping out to a 57-21 halftime lead. 

Illinois only being favored by -6.5 is puzzling to me. KenPom has Illinois favored by nine, and the books are usually open reasonably close to that number.  Money will likely come in on the Fighting Illini–they have won several big games, including a neutral-court victory over FAU at Madison Square Garden. Missouri backers might be better off waiting to get a better number.

Missouri has struggled without Grill on the floor, and hopefully, the betting public will pound Illinois and give us a better price on the spread because Missouri will keep this one close.

I have a lean, which would be to sprinkle a bit of money on Missouri to win straight-up. The team covering the spread has won each of the last five games. I like Missouri to cover, and if I can get +8 to +9, I will take those points and sprinkle the moneyline. 

Illinois vs Missouri betting trend to know

Over is 6-1 in Tigers last seven games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Missouri.

Illinois vs Missouri game info

Illinois vs Missouri key injuries

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