Indiana vs Kansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Making the Gradey

The Indiana Hoosiers visit the Kansas Jayhawks in a matchup highlighting a college basketball premiere weekend.

The defending national champion Jayhawks have gotten it right. They lost to Tennessee to end November, but since then, they have rolled off three straight. That includes an absolute destruction of rival Missouri in its last game by a score of 95-67 — and it wasn't even that close. 

Indiana entered this season with high expectations, and while it hasn’t underwhelmed in the face of those expectations, it hasn’t precisely exceeded them either. The Hoosiers have mostly lost to who you expect them to lose to and beaten who you'd expect them to beat. They come off a home loss to Arizona into this matchup.

What's the Best Bet for this matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Kansas on Saturday, December 17.

Indiana vs Kansas best odds

Indiana vs Kansas picks and predictions

Two obvious offensive advantages exist for both teams in this game. I’ll target one of those advantages and make it my Best Bet. 

Gradey Dick has been electric for Kansas this season. Watching him get hot from behind the arc is a spectacle, as nobody in the gym can guard him when he does. He's already had games with 18, 23, and 25 points this season, and they've come when he's not even the clear No. 1 offensive option for Kansas. He's capable of having a similar offensive output this afternoon. 

Arizona's Kerr Kriisa is a player quite similar to Dick in many ways. They both shoot over 40% from three, with Dick being a little better, and they both play similarly. Indiana just faced him, and while he just scored 14 points, he shot 12 shots and 10 threes while making just four field goals. Most of these shots were open. 

You give that to Dick? His microwave-scoring ability will punish you. He’s shooting an 61.5% eFG on spot-up sets and at an incredible clip of 71.5% eFG in transition, with plenty of those shots coming from deep. Simply put, you give him open looks, and he's making them more often than not. I expect he'll have those opportunities as well because Indiana will have to defend Kansas in a similar way they defended the Wildcats.

The Hoosiers have been a strong defensive team under Mike Woodson. They’ve ranked in the Top 50 of defensive efficiency throughout his tenure and look likely to do it again as they currently sit 22nd in that category. However, there's one big flaw in the Hoosiers' defense, and that comes against the dribble handoff. 

Teams are shooting nearly 50% from the field on handoffs against them while averaging just over .90 points per possession. That places Indiana in the bottom 40% defending them. Unfortunately for them, this is one of the places where Dick can thrive. Kansas doesn't run many of them, but he's shown the catch-and-shoot ability to be an elite option when they do. 

Back Gradey Dick to score in bunches today. There are so many situational advantages in his favor, the most notable being that the Jayhawks are at home. Apparent from several Kansas games this season, he's a player that feeds off a game's energy, environment, and tempo. This will be a reasonably high-tempo game with an electric atmosphere. I also expect him to get open looks.

The Hoosiers allowed just four open jump shots against Arizona. Still, three were to the guy they should have been the most worried about scoring: Kerr Kriisa. I'm expecting a similar scenario to unfold here.

My best bet: Gradey Dick over 14.5 points (-110 at DraftKings) 

Indiana vs Kansas spread analysis

My biggest secret in this matchup is that both teams are overrated. Both can be March threats, but both have some real prominent warts that I'm not sure teams ranked as similar as them have. Anytime any team travels to Lawrence, you give the lean to the Jayhawks, and this game is no exception. However, I'm still determining if I'll have a pregame bet on a side. I want 6.5 points to back Indiana, and if I don't get it, I'll say away.

This is the Hoosiers' final chance at a marquee non-conference win. Sure, the win at home against North Carolina was nice, but it may not be special at all by Selection Sunday with how the Tar Heels are trending. With that in mind, Kansas will get Indiana's best swing. Indiana has the size advantage to give Kansas issues. 

That will be a problem for the Jayhawks throughout the season, and it will be an advantage for the Hoosiers most of the year. Preseason Big Ten Player of the Year Trayce Jackson Davis can have an otherworldly performance that may put Indiana over the top. But will he? He hasn't played to his best level recently, with three-straight games held below his scoring average.

At a minimum, Indiana will need that to change if they are to have a shot here. It's a basic thing, but it's what I'll be watching in the closet to see if I want to live bet. 

Indiana vs Kansas Over/Under analysis

The Over feels right in this spot. There's an outside chance that Kansas steamrolls Indiana, which would lead to the Over, but there's much more at play that makes you like it.

As I mentioned above, Kansas has some obvious advantages on the wings, and Indiana has some obvious advantages inside. These are two simply matchup-based things that I wonder if either team can scheme to stop overnight. Given how fluky scoring runs usually can be in college basketball, you must lean to the Over anytime you can find obvious offensive advantages for both teams.

Both teams give up second-chance points as well. Per Synergy, Kansas' offensive rebound "defense" is poor. They allow a whopping 1.1 points per possession on offensive rebounds and nearly 60% of shooting. If Indiana doesn't have Jalen Hood-Schifino — a game-time decision — the Hoosiers will also struggle on the offensive glass. It plagued them against Arizona a few days ago when they were outrebounded by 10. 

Take the Over here. There are too many obvious offensive advantages to ignore in what should be a game that sees nearly 70 possessions. 

Indiana vs Kansas betting trend to know

Indiana is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after a loss. Find more College basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Kansas.

Indiana vs Kansas game info

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