Indiana vs Nebraska Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Hoosiers Facing Daunting Task

The Nebraska Cornhuskers made a jump this season. This is Big Red’s best season since 1991, and even then, the ‘Huskers lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. More recently, this is the program’s first season above .500 since 2019, let alone above .700. Head coach Fred Hoiberg appears to have found something that works.

Nebraska beat the Indiana Hoosiers twice this season, which was the difference between the Hoosiers getting a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament bracket or needing to beat Penn State on Thursday as underdogs in the Big Ten Tournament odds. 

The Hooisers will need to go on a run that wraps up Sunday afternoon, to have any hope of cracking the March Madness odds. Unfortunately, that run ends tonight in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals according to our free college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs Nebraska on March 15.

Indiana vs Nebraska best odds

Indiana vs Nebraska picks and predictions

Winning a bet is nice. Winning a bet because a handicap was spot-on is far better and Indiana’s +105 moneyline upset of Penn State last night provided that kind of vindication. The Nittany Lions had shot the lights out from deep in two wins against the Hoosiers earlier this season, only to shoot 7-of-27 from deep last night. Furthermore, Indiana’s offensive strength fit Penn State’s defensive weakness, with the Hoosiers taking 44 of their 56 field goal attempts from inside the arc.

Part of the joy of nailing a handicap is the emboldened trust in the thought process moving forward.

Knowing Indiana needs to score on the inside to keep up with just about anybody — the Hoosiers shot 3-pointers less often than anyone else in the Big Ten, leading to the No. 11 offense in the conference, per Ken Pomeroy — a quick look at Nebraska's interior defense provides direction to gauging this quarterfinal.

Bad news, Indiana. Nebraska is the best interior defense in the Big Ten.

Opponents were borderline scared to enter the paint against the ‘Huskers, taking a lesser share of their field goals within the arc than against any other defense. They made only 46.7 percent of their 2-point field goals against Nebraska.

Think about that for a second. The national 2-point field goal percentage average was 50.3. Opponents shot 3.6 percentage points worse than that against Big Red.

Indiana will have no counter. It made 32.7 percent of its 3s this year (No. 244 in the country), and 33.4 percent in conference competition (No. 11 in the Big Ten). On the rare occasions the Hoosiers shot from deep, they missed.

Just to drive one more nail into the coffin of Indiana’s scoring hopes tonight, it is worth noting Nebraska gave up free throws at the third-lowest rate in the Big Ten.

There is no discernible path to Hoosiers’ points tonight.

My best bet: Indiana team total Under 70.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Indiana vs Nebraska same-game parlay

Indiana team total Under 70.5

Kel’el Ware Under 16.5 points

Nebraska -5.5

+274 at FanDuel

Kel’el Ware and Malik Reneau each take more than nine 2-point field goals per game. Ware makes more of them, but his points prop is three points higher today, more than the disparity should be, and enough reason to target him in this same-game parlay.

Nebraska will challenge every one of those shots, and with that best 2-point defense in the Big Ten, it is reasonable to think Ware will miss a few more than usual, further dooming this Indiana team total.

His season average is 16.2 points, largely thanks to shooting 61.8 percent on the interior, but in his most recent game against the ‘Huskers, that fell to 54.5 percent.

These reasons all trend toward favoring Nebraska by more than 5.5. The offense is perfectly decent enough to cover this spread, especially with the rate at which it shoots 3s.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Indiana vs Nebraska spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with Nebraska favored by 3.5 early Friday morning and quickly rose to -4.5, only to then go up to -5.5 during the lunch hour. That line move was the correct direction, but it may not have been high enough.

The Cornhuskers were two-point road underdogs at Indiana three weeks ago, winning outright by 15. Take away the home-court advantage of Assembly Hall and that game would have seen Nebraska favored by 1.5 on a neutral court.

Why then justify four more points tonight? The ‘Huskers have improved since Feb. 21, the Hoosiers have not fluctuated much, that game was arguably mispriced given its decisive result, and Indiana played a physical game last night that came down to the final possession.

Any higher than -5.5 would be extreme, but Nebraska should cover that tonight, particularly with its defensive emphasis.

The total opened at 145.5 and climbed just to 146, with little to be gleaned from that move. It is worth noting both meetings between these two this season went Over their totals, reaching 156 and 155 points with totals at 151 and 150.5.

Indiana vs Nebraska betting trend to know

Nebraska is 10-3 against the spread since Jan. 20. Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Nebraska.

Indiana vs Nebraska game info

Indiana vs Nebraska key injuries

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