The Iowa Hawkeyes host the No. 3 ranked Iowa State Cyclones in college basketball action tonight.
The total for this game opened at 159.5 and has ticked up to 161 but my Iowa State vs. Iowa predictions are going against the line movement.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash between rivals on December 12.
Iowa State vs Iowa prediction
My best bet
Under 161.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This total is too high when you consider that the Iowa State Cyclones are eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. This is a Cyclones squad that led the country in adjusted defense last year while holding foes to just 61.5 points per game. They returned four of five starters including high-end defenders Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, and Curtis Jones so they should be able to keep the Iowa Hawkeyes offense in check.
The Hawkeyes are 7-2 thanks to an efficient offense but they haven't faced anybody with the on-ball defense that the Cyclones possess. It's also worth mentioning that when they faced ISU on the road last year with many of the same players, they were held to 65 points on 39% shooting.
On the other side of the floor, the Cyclones have been shooting far better than last year, with their EFG% climbing from 52% to 57.2%. However, that number is inflated by four contests against teams outside the Top 275 of the KenPom ratings and their shooting should see regression in their first true road contest of the season.
The Cyclones have been playing at a speedy pace this season, ranking 14th in the country in average possession length (15.2 seconds) and 89th in adjusted tempo. That said, I'm expecting them to significantly slow down their pace as we get into the meat of their schedule. Keep in mind that with the same ball-handlers and coach last season, they ranked 144th in offensive possession length (17.3 seconds) and 201st in adjusted tempo.
With their relentless ball pressure, they did a great job of slowing down opponents and that will be crucial to their success against a Hawkeyes side that likes to push the pace. The Hawkeyes also do a good job of forcing turnovers so expect both offenses to take their time setting up in the half-court and look to minimize mistakes.
Iowa State vs Iowa same-game parlay
Under 161.5
Iowa State Moneyline
Curtis Jones Over 4.5 rebounds
Hawkeye-Carver Arena is an extremely tough venue for visitors which is why I'm wary of laying 5.5 points with ISU. That said, the Cyclones are the better defensive team and have the more athletic lineup. The Hawkeyes are outside the Top 300 in opponent 2-point percentage (56.7%) while the Cyclones are 15th in 2-point percentage (59.9%) and should be able to get the buckets they need to win outright.
Jones is coming off a one-rebound performance in a blowout win against Jackson State. However, he had grabbed 5+ boards in six of his first seven games this season and faces an Iowa side that ranks just 289th in rebounding rate (46.9%).
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Iowa State vs Iowa odds
Iowa State vs Iowa live odds
Iowa State vs Iowa opening odds
- Spread: Iowa State -6.5 | Iowa +6.5
- Moneyline: Iowa State -280 | Iowa +230
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Iowa State vs Iowa betting trend to know
The Under is 18-8 in Iowa State's last 26 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Iowa.
How to watch Iowa State vs Iowa
| Location: | Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Iowa State vs Iowa key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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