The Texas Longhorns are coming off a big upset victory at TCU and face their sixth consecutive nationally-ranked Big 12 opponent Tuesday night when they welcome the No. 14-ranked Iowa State Cyclones to Moody Center.
Iowa State is looking to bounce back from a strange 70-68 away loss to the Baylor Bears that ended a three-game winning streak and kept the Cyclones from taking sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings.
Who will win Tuesday’s Big 12 conference tilt? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Iowa State and Texas on Tuesday, February 6.
Iowa State vs Texas best odds
Iowa State vs Texas picks and predictions
Texas Longhorns guard Max Abmas scored the Longhorns' final 13 points TCU on Saturday to overtake the Horned Frogs but also leap-frog Kansas legend Danny Manning for 13th on the all-time NCAA scoring list.
As a result, he was named Big 12 Newcomer of the Week for the third time as a Longhorn. He's also 10+ points in every game this season.
Abmas can do it all — he can score from everywhere, and when he isn’t looking for his shot, he’s dropping dimes and setting his teammates up for success. He averages 4.2 assists per tilt, which rises to five dimes and 16.8 points per game inside Moody Center.
Abmas and the Longhorns have a great shooting matchup against a Cyclones program that ShotQuality ranks 356th in shots allowed from beyond the arc. Opponents are draining 39.5% against the Iowa State Cyclones on the road, and Texas has knocked down 36.5% of its downtown looks at Moody Center.
Iowa State will likely be aggressive when defending Abmas, and while the Cyclones allow too many wide-open looks from downtown, Abmas might not have it so easy.
That’s OK because he finds a way to contribute when he isn’t getting the looks, and his teammates will likely fire away against a lousy Iowa State 3-point defense.
He's gone Over this number in seven of his previous eight at Moody Center, making this +120 price too good to pass up.
My best bet: Max Abmas Over 4.5 assists (+120 at DraftKings)
Iowa State vs Texas same-game parlay
Max Abmas Over 4.5 assists
Dillon Mitchell Over 10.5 points
Keshon Mitchell Over 14.5 points
This three-leg SGP correlates well with Abmas dropping five dimes against the Cyclones.
Longhorns forward Dillon Mitchell has cleared this number in each of his last two and has an excellent opportunity for second-chance points against a Cyclones side ranked 12th in the conference in offensive rebound percentage allowed. He averages 11.9 points per game at home.
Finally, Iowa State guard Keshon Gilbert is scoring well for the Cyclones. He’s their offensive leader and has cleared this number in his last four Big 12 matchups while averaging 16 ppg on the road this season. He’s playing with tremendous confidence and should clear his number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
Iowa State enters this matchup with a chip on its shoulders with a 2-3 away record but are 3-2 ATS over its previous five away tilts. The Cyclones are also 5-3 ATS in Big 12 matchups this season and are anywhere from +1.5 at FanDuel to +2.5 at DraftKings.
The Longhorns are 10-3 overall but only 4-9 ATS at Moody Center. That puts taking the points and betting on the Cyclones to cover the spread as an underdog firmly in play and a bet I plan on making.
I like the prospects of this game ending Over the number, which opened at 141.5 and hasn’t budged. We have two programs that play to the Over — Iowa State is 13-8 overall and 3-2 O/U as the away team.
Conversely, Texas is 12-10 to the Over but 6-7 O/U to the Under at Moody Center. The tempo should be there, and Iowa State forces plenty of turnovers they turn into 22.4 points from turnovers.
That’s why I’m leaning toward the Cyclones pulling off an upset. They should’ve beaten Baylor, and you can bet they'll be hunting for a victory against a Texas team that is 1-3 over its last four conference games at home.
Iowa State vs Texas betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Texas' last four home games against Big 12 opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Texas.
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Iowa State vs Texas game info
| Location: | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 6, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Longhorn Network |
Iowa State vs Texas key injuries
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