The Purdue Boilermakers might be the top-ranked team in the nation, but they’re staring up at the field in the Big Ten.
Granted, it’s early, and their lone loss of the season kicked off conference play. They’ll try to right the ship against the Iowa Hawkeyes, who kick off their Big Ten schedule tonight.
The Boilermakers are a hefty 13.5-point favorite in the college basketball odds, but the Hawkeyes might be one of the teams that can run with them offensively.
Read below for my free college basketball picks and best bet for Iowa vs. Purdue on Monday, December 4.
Iowa vs Purdue best odds
Iowa vs Purdue picks and predictions
After rising to the occasion for every big-game matchup to start the season, the Purdue Boilermakers got stopped by the Northwestern Wildcats in a 92-88 OT decision. The loss will drop them from the top ranking they had just achieved.
One of the top defenses in college hoops, Purdue allowed Northwestern to shoot 47% from the field and a crisp 50% from 3-point range. The Boilermakers rank 36th in the NCAA, usually holding teams to 38.7% shooting and 26.4% from distance (15th). But they were also careless with the ball, turning it over 17 times, while only forcing three Wildcat turnovers. A team that usually hits from distance at a 40.9% clip — a Top-5 mark in the nation — the Boilermakers were just 5-for-19 (26.3%).
This looks like the outlier for Purdue, and this is the script it followed last year, dropping its conference opener to these same Wildcats. At KenPom, the Boilermakers are still ranked second overall, fourth in offensive efficiency, and ninth in defensive efficiency.
Enter the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are eighth in the nation in scoring at 90.7 points per game, one of nine schools to crack the 90-point plateau. They’re coming off a 103-78 blowout of the North Florida Ospreys where they shot 59% from the field and went 8-for-14 from 3-point range.
Iowa piles up points at the stripe, averaging just under 20 points per game, which ranks 17th in college basketball. KenPom has the Hawkeyes ranked inside the Top 40, ranking 15th in offensive efficiency and 10th in tempo.
Defensively, however, there’s plenty of room for improvement, as they rank 280th in scoring defense, allowing 75.7 points per game.
The 92 points scored by Northwestern is the most allowed by Purdue this season, but no one else has gone for more than 75 points. The fourth-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles hit that mark. Of the ranked teams Purdue has squared off with, it has allowed Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette to average 68.3 points.
The top-ranked opponent Iowa has faced is Creighton, and I think its offense will feel the effects of leveling up against the top-ranked team in hoops.
My best bet: Under 165.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Iowa vs Purdue same-game parlay
Under 165.5
Zach Edey Over 24.5 points
Tony Perkins Over 11.5 points
We cannot create a same-game parlay with this matchup without including big man Zach Edey. The Canadian is coming off a big line in the loss to Northwestern, finishing with a season-high 35 points on 10-for-17 shooting, with 14 rebounds and three blocks. It’s the fourth time in six games he’s cone for better than 25 points — the number you need him to cross to win this leg.
His work against the top teams is where you should expect him to hover around, especially because Purdue — the preseason pick to win the Big Ten — doesn’t want to start 0-2 in conference play. He went for 28 points and 15 rebounds over fourth-ranked Marquette, 23 and 10 over seventh-ranked Tennessee, and 25 and 14 against 11th-ranked Gonzaga.
Edey’s presence on the other end of the court is why Iowa’s senior guard Tony Perkins should top his total.
The Hawkeyes are third in the country in two-point scoring, racking up 50.6 points per game, one of only three teams to crack the 50-point plateau. Purdue allows only 36.3.
Look for Perkins to supplement the scoring usually supplied by their forwards Monday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis
Iowa has been as long as a 14-point underdog, but that line can be found anywhere now from 12.5 points to 13.5 points.
The Boilermakers are 5-2-1 against the spread this year, while Iowa is 3-4-0 ATS.
The total has gone as low as 164.5 points, and as high as 168.5.
Purdue and its opponents have combined to score more than 165.5 points in a game just twice this season.
There have been three Iowa games that ended with a combined score over 165.5 points this season.
Iowa vs Purdue betting trend to know
When pegged as 13.5-point favorites or better this season, Purdue is 3-1 ATS. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Purdue.
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Iowa vs Purdue game info
| Location: | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Monday, December 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
Iowa vs Purdue key injuries
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