Another NCAA Tournament ticket will be punched when Jacksonville State and Liberty square off in the Conference USA Championship game tonight.
The Flames are lighting it up from deep in this tournament and have performed much better down the stretch, while the Gamecocks have lost four of their last nine.
My Jacksonville State vs. Liberty predictions break down why the Flames will cover the spread and secure their spot on the March Madness dance floor. Find out more in my college basketball picks for Saturday, March 15.
Who will win Jacksonville State vs Liberty?
Liberty's offense is clicking at just the right time, shooting nearly 65% from inside the arc in their last two games, and they remain one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the country.
Jacksonville State surrendered 11 threes to Middle Tennessee State on Friday, ultimately relying on offensive rebounding and frequent trips to the line to escape. The Gamecocks won’t have those advantages here and will fall short in their bid to reach the Big Dance.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty prediction
My best bet: Liberty -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Liberty Flames have gotten red-hot from deep. Liberty has attempted a staggering 91 triples in three games during the Conference USA tournament, making 42 of them.
Kaden Metheny, who made just 30% of his 3-point shots in the final 11 games of the regular season, is shooting 52.4% from downtown in the tournament. In wins over UTEP and Kennesaw State, the junior guard connected on 11 of 21 attempts and posted his two best offensive ratings of 2025.
And while the Jacksonville State Gamecocks locked him down in the first two meetings, their defense has been a bit lacking in the tournament. FIU and MTSU shot a combined 42.2% from outside and are ranked 297th in 3-point rate allowed on the season. They’ve also allowed opponents to score nearly 43% of their points from long range.
Jacksonville State is a team that thrives on mid-range shots inside the arc, scoring less than 35% of its points from close and only 36.6% of points from outside the arc. Meanwhile, Liberty sits 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency, Top 10 in eFG%, and 61st in 2-point% defense.
What stands out most, however, is Liberty's Top 25 national ranking in limiting opponents' free throw opportunities. This is key against a Jacksonville State team that has posted an identical 37.7% FT rate in the two tournament wins. In fact, Liberty held the Gamecocks to just a 15.8% FT rate in its four-point win last month.
The Flames made only seven shots from deep in that game, and improving on that metric here will be the difference. They will negate Jacksonville State’s solid interior defense by shooting over it, causing problems for a Gamecock offense ranked 321st in eFG% in their last 10 games.
It's also important to note that the Gamecocks lost four of their final eight regular season contests, with two of the wins coming via two points. Their offense will be smothered again by the Flames, who will burn bright from downtown and cover the spread behind late free throws.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty -5.5
Liberty 1H -3
1H Over 61
In both the earlier meetings this season, Liberty led going into the break. The Flames were up 38-32 on the road before a terrible shooting performance doomed them in the second half.
During their home win, they led the Gamecocks 31-16 before allowing a big run to make things tight later in the contest. They’ll trail again here by multiple baskets at halftime, with Liberty covering the first-half spread for the 23rd time in 31 games.
Jacksonville State and MTSU scored a combined 70 points yesterday, while both of Liberty’s two tournament games have gone past the 61-point mark prior to halftime. The Flames are shooting the ball well enough from deep that they’ll flirt with 40 points before the break, with Jacksonville State doing enough offensively to help push the total Over for the 10th time in its last 14 games.
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Jacksonville State vs Liberty odds
Jacksonville State vs Liberty live odds
Jacksonville State vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Jacksonville State +6 (-110) | Liberty -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Jacksonville State +220 | Liberty -270
- Over/Under: Over 130.5 (-110) | Under 130.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Jacksonville State vs Liberty State betting trend to know
Liberty has covered the spread in 19 of its last 30 games (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Jacksonville State vs. Liberty.
How to watch Jacksonville State vs Liberty
| Location | Von Braun Center, Huntsville, AL |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS Sports Network |
Jacksonville State vs Liberty key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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