Kansas State vs Texas Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Taking Their Time

It’s a matchup of stingy defense vs sturdy offense in Round 2 of the Big 12 Tournament bracket when the 10th-seeded Kansas State Wildcats battle the No. 7 Texas Longhorns.

Most prognosticators believe the ‘Horns have done enough to earn an at-large bid to March Madness, though getting bounced in their Big 12 opener as 4.5-point favorites in the conference tournament odds wouldn’t be a good look.

Kansas State, meanwhile, is hoping a season-ending win over sixth-ranked Iowa State tacked onto an upset of Texas could have them dancing come selection Sunday.

Where is your wager leaning? Read below as I offer my free college basketball picks for Kansas State vs. Texas on Wednesday, March 13.

Kansas State vs Texas best odds

Kansas State vs Texas picks and predictions

Texas closed out the regular season in style, thumping the Oklahoma Sooners 94-80 for its third win in the final four games. Ranked 21st overall at KenPom, the Longhorns are powered by an offense that sits 20th in offensive efficiency, averaging a healthy 76.6 points per game. That’s a Top-4 mark in the Big 12 and inside the Top 100 in the NCAA, while also ranking 40th in field goal shooting (47.6%) and 46th in 3-point shooting (36.6%).

The talent is definitely there, but how dependable are the Longhorns?

While they ended the year with a much-needed win, it’s hard not to mention the previous loss to 11th-ranked Baylor where Texas couldn’t land the plane with an 11-point lead and just over 13 minutes to play. Instead, they could only watch as the Bears went on a 21-2 run to snatch the win.

I’m not sure if Kansas State is the team to capitalize, but the Wildcats' season-ending 65-58 win over Iowa State shows they are plenty capable. K-State put the Cyclones in a vise, limiting them to 43.1% shooting, including a dreadful 5-for-17 performance from 3-point range.

That’s par for the course for these Wildcats, who boast a 19th-place ranking in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric. They allow 70.2 points per game (122nd) while holding opponents to 40.6% shooting (29th) and 31.3% from 3-point range (47th).

Unfortunately, the offense can’t hold up its end of the bargain, ranking a meek 143rd in offensive efficiency at KenPom.

Kansas State averages 72.2 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 31.8% from beyond the arc — all outside the Top 230 in the NCAA.

Texas took the lone matchup this season, a 62-56 slugfest, and while the Longhorns were limited to 36.2% shooting, including a 3-for-19 mark from deep, K-State couldn’t take advantage, shooting 35.7% and 5-for-19 from distance.

There's another rock fight in store on Wednesday since the Wildcats are 195th in adjusted tempo at KenPom, while the Longhorns are in 203rd. They combined for 13 total fast-break points last meeting, so expect a lot of walking up and grind-out possessions.

Texas wins, but it won’t be pretty or high-scoring.

My best bet: Under 143.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Kansas State vs Texas same-game parlay

Under 143

Tyrese Hunter Under 1.5 made threes

David N'Guessan Over 5.5 rebounds

+385 at DraftKings

Talk about closing out the season in style for Longhorns guard Tyrese Hunter, who capped it with a season-best 30 points while matching a season-high seven dimes in the win over Oklahoma. Still, his scoring line today is set to a meager 9.5 points. That’s because despite scoring in double digits in back-to-back games, Hunter had topped double digits just twice in the previous nine games.

One of those games was against these Wildcats, as he shot a dismal 3-for-10 from the field for nine points, missing all three of his 3-point attempts. Look for Hunter to be more effective as a setup man in this one.

We’ll wrap this SGP with a very makeable rebound line of 5.5 for K-State senior reserve David N’Guessan. Like Hunter, he’s coming off a season-best effort in his team’s finale, hauling down 16 boards against Iowa State. N’Guessan has topped this total in four of his last six games, including pulling down seven boards in the loss against the Longhorns.

Expect him to work the glass regardless of the outcome.

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Kansas State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread has stayed solid at 4.5 points since opening. K-State has the better record against the spread, going 16-15-0. It has yo-yo’d between ATS wins and losses in each of its last five contests.

Texas has covered only 12 of its 31 games this season, but went 3-0-1 ATS to close out the regular season.

By Tuesday night, the total had reached a new high of 143.5 points, a 1.5-point jump from its opening.

The Longhorns have seen the Over go 19-12-0 in their games this year, while the Wildcats have seen the Over/Under split at 15-15-1.

Kansas State vs Texas betting trend to know

Kansas State has covered three of the last four head-to-head matchups vs Texas. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas State vs. Texas.

Kansas State vs Texas game info

Kansas State vs Texas key injuries

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