The Kansas Jayhawks beat the Arizona Wildcats on the final Saturday of the regular season, an 83-76 win in Lawrence that was tied with five minutes to go. Can the Jayhawks replicate that on Thursday, March 13 despite playing overtime last night in the Big 12 Tournament?
My Kansas vs. Arizona predictions and college basketball picks put faith in the Jayhawks before the 9:30 p.m. ET tip-off from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City on ESPN2.
Who will win Kansas vs Arizona?
The Kansas Jayhawks were 4-point home favorites against the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday. If trusting Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, Allen Fieldhouse is worth 3.9 points. By that logic, Kansas and Arizona should be a pick’em on a neutral court, if entirely ignoring that six-point Jayhawks’ win.
Yet Kansas is a 2.5-point underdog tonight. That difference is in part because the Jayhawks played last night (beating Central Florida in overtime), but that is too much of a move, particularly since Kansas should have some homecourt edge in Kansas City, too.
The Jayhawks should pull off an upset tonight.
Kansas vs Arizona prediction
My best bet: Kansas moneyline (+125 at bet365)
One of the most underappreciated pieces of kenpom.com is how it shows a team’s progression or regression through the season, keeping at-that-time rankings in front of each matchup. That is how it can be easily seen when Kansas fell off.
Not to be too simple about it, but the Jayhawks failed at elevation. Going into a two-game road trip in the state of Utah, Pomeroy’s numbers ranked Kansas as the No. 10 team in the country. The Jayhawks then fell as 6.5-point favorites at Utah — an elevation higher than 4,200 feet — and as 2.5-point underdogs at BYU — more than 4,500 feet above sea level.
Kansas fell behind early in both games, in front of two of the larger audiences of the entire college basketball season, in venues considered to be Top-10 most challenging in the country. Those losses dropped the Jayhawks to No. 22 from No. 10.
That was an overreaction in the numbers. It did not properly account for the venues, the impact of those early deficits, or the elevation.
That overreaction provides value now. Sure, Kansas has gone just 4-2 against the spread since, but it has exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 2.7 points in those six games, even including the two ATS losses. The Jayhawks should be getting credit for their play of late, but the memory of those two losses in mid-February looms.
Beating Arizona on Saturday should have furthered belief in Kansas.
Perhaps the Jayhawks are tired from last night. More likely, the four days off beforehand gave them enough legs for these two games, while the Wildcats will need to adjust to T-Mobile Center to start tonight. Aside from hypothetical Kansas fatigue, there is no reason to bet against the home team in this Big 12 Tournament.
At plus-money, the value in the moneyline is too steep to turn down.
Kansas vs Arizona same-game parlay (SGP)
Kansas moneyline
Zeke Mayo Over 13.5 points
Caleb Love Over 16.5 points
Zeke Mayo scored 20 points in that win against Arizona on Saturday, hitting 5 of 7 shots from deep. Yet, he was Kansas’s second-leading scorer behind Hunter Dickinson’s 33 points. The Wildcats may need to devote more resources to Dickinson tonight, which should give Mayo a few more open looks.
He hit 40.8% of his threes in Big 12 play this season and cleared this prop in 12 of 21 conference games, including scoring 24 points against UCF last night, again hitting 5 of 7 from deep.
As for Caleb Love, he is going to shoot, we all know this. It is Caleb Love in a tournament setting, so he is going to chuck plenty.
The fifth-year veteran has never been shy about looking to the rim. To be fair, it works out plenty often for him, scoring at least 21 points in three of his last five games and clearing this points prop in eight of his last 14 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kansas vs Arizona odds
Kansas vs Arizona live odds
Kansas vs Arizona opening odds
- Spread: Kansas +1.5 | Arizona -1.5
- Moneyline: Kansas +105 | Arizona -125
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 | Under 152.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kansas vs Arizona betting trend to know
Arizona has gone 1-2 both outright and against the spread as a one-bucket favorite this year, needing overtime in the single success. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Arizona.
How to watch Kansas vs Arizona
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Kansas vs Arizona key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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