Kansas vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sooners Ably Defend the Perimeter

Kansas' Johnny Furphy does most of his scoring damage from range but he's been shaky of late and Oklahoma does a bang-up job at defending the perimeter. Even if the Jayhawks live up to their road favorite billing, Furphy's in danger of being neutralized.

Jeremy Jones - Betting Analyst at Covers
Jeremy Jones • Betting Analyst
Feb 17, 2024 • 11:26 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Johnny Furphy Kansas Jayhawks NCAA College Basketball
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Two teams that started the season great but have had recent struggles in the Big 12 will clash this afternoon in Norman, as the Kansas Jayhawks take on the Oklahoma Sooners. 

The Jayhawks have lost five of their last 11 games and find themselves mid-pack in the Big 12 standings at 7-5 in conference play. The Sooners have lost six of their last 11 games and are 6-6 in Big 12 play. Will the Jayhawks bounce back from a crushing defeat and cover in the college basketball odds on the road? 

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Oklahoma on Saturday, February 17. 

Kansas vs Oklahoma best odds

Kansas vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

These programs met a month ago and the Kansas Jayhawks easily covered with a 78-66 home win. Kansas was the third-ranked team in the country and the Oklahoma Sooners were ninth. Now, the Sooners find themselves down to 25th and Kansas is coming off a 29-point loss at Texas Tech. 

The Jayhawks have been dreadful in true road games this season at both 2-5 straight up and against the spread. They only have one road win in Big 12 play and that was against the worst team in the conference, Oklahoma State. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 13-2 at home with impressive wins over both Iowa State and BYU.  

Kansas is seen as a legitimate contender, but its numbers do not reflect this notion. The Jayhawks are ranked 20th in KenPom and rely heavily on getting buckets in the paint. They rank sixth in the country in field-goal percentage, but only 24.1% of their points come from the 3-point line (318th nationally). The Jayhawks also rank 331st in 3-point attempts with only 17.5 per game. 

On the other end, Oklahoma is fantastic at defending the 3-ball, holding opponents to just 28.9% from downtown, which ranks 13th in the country. The Sooners rank 23rd in defensive efficiency and 47th in points allowed per game at 66.6, and only four opponents have scored more than 70 points in Norman. 

Since the start of conference play, only two opponents have made double-digit threes against the Sooners. The Jayhawks shot 6-for-20 from downtown in their first matchup this season, and Kansas has never made more than seven threes in a road game, averaging 5.3 per road game. 

Johnny Furphy is one of the Jayhawks’ best deep shooters, but he has been inconsistent on the road. He was only 1 of 4 from deep in the previous matchup in 19 minutes and is 11 of 30 from range in seven true road games.

My best bet: Johnny Furphy Under 1.5 made threes (+105 at DraftKings)

Kansas vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Johnny Furphy Under 1.5 made threes

Hunter Dickinson Over 9.5 rebounds

Johnny Furphy Under 11.5 points

The Jayhawks will be the opposite of the Sooners and force their opponent to shoot lots of threes. Unless the Sooners shoot lights out, this will cause a lot of defensive rebounding opportunities for the Jayhawks, who rank 22nd in defensive boards per game at 28.2.

The biggest advantage in grabbing defensive boards for Kansas goes to Hunter Dickinson, who averages 8.3 per game. In the first matchup, Dickinson had 12 defensive boards and 14 total rebounds. We can get his number here at 9.5.

Finally, we will finish with Furphy’s point total. If he does not get two threes, then it is extremely unlikely he gets to 12 points total. He only had seven points in their last matchup and averages only 10 on the road.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Kansas vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sooners are fantastic at home and the Jayhawks are terrible on the road. However, despite a 13-2 home record, the Sooners are only 8-7 ATS in Norman. But since they are underdogs, you get to look more at the 13-2 record, as this is the first time all season that Oklahoma will be home dogs.   

Oklahoma is a great defensive team and will force Kansas to outscore it from within the 3-point line. The Sooners are also a fantastic rebounding team, ranking 31st in the nation in rebounding percentage (53.7%). Kansas will need to shoot very efficiently if it wants to avoid a fifth consecutive road loss. 

The last matchup went Over the total, but the Sooners are typically involved in higher-scoring games away from their home court. The Under has hit in nine of the 15 games played in Norman. This is a slight lean towards the Under because of how well Oklahoma defends the three-point line and how few threes the Jayhawks shoot, but it is not a confident play.

Kansas vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

Kansas has hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Oklahoma.

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Kansas vs Oklahoma game info

Location: Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK
Date: Saturday, February 17, 2024
Tip-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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Jeremy Jones - Covers
Betting Analyst

Jeremy Jones was born and raised in Lexington, Kentucky and has been a massive Wildcats fans since the moment he came into the world. He wrote his first sports article at the tender age of 11 after attending a local AHL hockey game, and a few years later was writing professionally for sites such as Sports Rants, BetAmerica, and TwinSpires.

Jeremy holds a Masters in Sports Administration from Eastern Kentucky University and utilizes all seven betting options available in Kentucky to shop for odds and promos and find the greatest EV in every wager he places.

His best piece of sports betting advice is to stick to consistent unit sizes for every wager. He acknowledges there will occasionally be a bet that has a huge EV and you can play multiple units in one bet, but cautions against raising your unit size, because you can quickly lose all your winnings if you hit a minor cold streak.

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