Kentucky vs Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tide Tames Wildcats

Kentucky has not had the season its fans expected, but Saturday provides an opportunity to change the narrative. The Wildcats travel to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama, with the hopes of handing the Crimson Tide their first home loss of the season.

Kentucky comes into the game without a win over a Quad 1 team, and having yet to win a true road game this season. Meanwhile the Tide are flying high, possessing a high-volume offensive attack that has taken down multiple top teams this season.

Oscar Tshiebwe, the reigning National Player of the Year, will look to offset the ability of Alabama’s Brandon Miller, the leading scorer in the SEC. Can Tshiebwe continue his rebounding dominance, or will Alabama be able to cancel him with their prowess on the glass? Find out in our Kentucky vs. Alabama college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, January 7. 

Kentucky vs Alabama best odds

Kentucky vs Alabama picks and predictions

It’s rare that a program knocks off the top-ranked team twice in a season, but the Alabama Crimson Tide managed to do it twice in three weeks. Their 103-101 win over North Carolina in quadruple overtime on November 27 was followed up by a six-point win at Houston on December 10. 

Alabama is currently a No. 1 seed in many bracketology projections, and it’s easy to see why. The Tide protect the rim very well, starting with their 5.6 blocks per game. They rank first in the nation in rebounding with 46.5 boards per game, including more than 12 per at the offensive end, and their 83.3 points are 16th-best in the country. 

They don’t necessarily shoot at the highest percentage, but they create plenty of opportunities and they rank Top 10 in the country in both free throws and 3-pointers made per game. And they get better as the game goes along; their 44 points per second half are second-best in college basketball. Brandon Miller has been a monster this season, averaging 19 points and making 44% of his shots from beyond the arc.

Alabama is also allowing opponents to make just 28% of their outside shots — and that’s not particularly a strength of the Wildcats. Antonio Reeves has gone 4-for-21 from downtown in his last five games, and while Sahvir Wheeler has helped pick up the slack — he’s made eight of 14 attempts in that span— he’s not someone you can typically rely on for volume baskets outside the arc. Cason Wallace is the only consistent threat from the outside, but can he carry the load?

Kentucky has had opportunities to get a big win, much like Alabama. But the Wildcats have not passed those tests, and some of those opportunities left Kentucky looking like they didn’t even belong in the classroom. Even their win this week against LSU, where they led by double digits for large parts of the game, saw them nearly give it away down the stretch. 

The Tigers held Oscar Tshiebwe without a rebound over the final seven minutes, pulling him away from the basket, which allowed them to get some offensive rebounds and second-chance points as they cut down the lead. They also capitalized on Kentucky’s poor free-throw shooting, with the Wildcats making just 66.5% of their efforts from the charity stripe.

Kentucky has played two true road games this season (if you count Gonzaga, who played a few miles from campus). Those two games followed the same pattern — the Wildcats got their doors blown off during the latter part of the first half, they rallied a bit in the second half, and then fell apart down the stretch. Until they actually find a way to win a game against a good team — and not collapse in the final minutes — I see no reason to bet against the trend. Take Alabama and the points. 

My best bet: Alabama -6 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kentucky vs Alabama spread analysis

While the Wildcats have yet to lose in nine home games, they’ve gone just a combined 1-4 in road and neutral-site contests. They’ve also lost all three contests against Quad 1 teams, and split their two games against Quad 2 opponents.

The Crimson Tide have been perfect at home this season with a 7-0 record. They’ve also performed well against quality opponents, going 3-2 against Quad 1 teams and winning all three of their games against Quad 2 foes. 

Three-fifths of picks in Covers Consensus have gone for Alabama to cover the spread, and it makes sense why. Kentucky is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games, and only beat LSU by three despite being favored by double-digits. While the Tide have only covered in one of their last six home games, the Wildcats have covered in just five of their last 23 games on the road. 

As we said earlier, given Kentucky’s struggles at the free throw line and Alabama’s ability to compete with them on the glass, I don’t see the Wildcats making this the game — against a good team in a tough environment — where they suddenly change who they are. The public agrees as well, as the line has shifted from -5.5 on Friday night to as much as -7.5 on Saturday morning.

Kentucky vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

Just like the spread, the public has moved the total on Saturday morning as well. It opened at 151.5 and has gone up at least a point at multiple books, and the Covers Consensus pickers have gone for the Over at a rate of three to one. 

Kentucky and Alabama both rank in the Top 40 in points per game, and outside the Top 90 in points allowed. They both average better than 15 assists per contest and get lots of second-chance points. 

But can Kentucky post a high number of points if they don’t get those offensive rebounds? Tshiebwe has done a good job this season staying out of foul trouble, but that could be put to the test here.

In similar games to this one —against high-tempo teams like Gonzaga and Missouri — the scores exploded. Both of those games saw more than 160 points, as the Wildcats allowed 88 and 89, respectively. Even Louisville was able to put 63 points on the Wildcats,  a number they’ve failed to reach in more than half of their games.

Kentucky’s last four games have all gone Over their projected total, while Alabama has seen 21 of its last 28 games against teams with a .600 record or better go past the number.  Given Kentucky’s struggles against fast-paced offenses and Alabama’s ability to fire away from downtown, the Over seems to be the play. 

Kentucky vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Alabama.

Kentucky vs Alabama game info

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