Kentucky vs Arkansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Razorbacks Can't Contain Wildcats

When College Gameday scheduled its trip to Arkansas to see the Razorbacks face off against the Kentucky Wildcats, it didn't expect this. What's "this"? Two teams coming off conference losses to unranked opponents. It's not commonplace for either team, but that's what we have.

Of course, the situations for each program are significantly different. Arkansas has long fallen out of the Top 25, been a massive disappointment, and looks unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have lost two of their last four games, both Ls away from home, With back-to-back road losses fresh on the minds of the young cats, you can bet they'll be looking to make amends here. 
 
What's the best bet in this one? Find out when I look at the college basketball odds and give my free college basketball picks for Kentucky vs Arkansas on Saturday, January 27.

Kentucky vs Arkansas best odds

Kentucky vs Arkansas picks and predictions

My projections for this one are lofty, at least regarding expected points. Even some of the tamest of my models have this one going Over the total by four points, with the loftiest exceeding it by double digits.

As I hinted above, Kentucky has been a different team on the road, but in this instance, it could work in our favor. 

The Wildcats play substantially faster when they hit the road, averaging almost five more possessions per game. That's with a slow-paced game against South Carolina included in that data set, where the pair combined for only 63 possessions. Arkansas should have no opposition to playing fast, and with that in mind, the pace of this game could be even faster than expected.

Kentucky has a lethal combination of shooters and can fill it up anywhere on the court. The Arkansas Razorbacks have mostly been average across the board defensively, whether defending shooters, transition, or pick and roll. The average will not cut it against an elite offense out for blood. 

Arkansas has been exploitable in defending cutters, and Kentucky is built to attack there. The Razorbacks are allowing 1.3 points per possession on cutters this season, the second-worst in the SEC and the worst Kentucky has played against this season. The previous high was against Missouri.

There, Kentucky scored 90, and elite cutter Tre Mitchell scored 20. Along with Mizzou in that category is Georgia, yet again the Wildcats' offense was electric, scoring 105 points with Mitchell leading the way with 23. You're seeing a strong trend here, and I'll happily support it. 

I'm isolating Kentucky's team total of Over 85.5 at -108 for a unit, but it doesn't make up my best bet. That's because it doesn't account for how bad this Wildcats defense has been, and I want to factor that in my handicap.

Kentucky has allowed six straight opponents to score over a point per possession, culminating with the worst opponent of the year last week, South Carolina, who scored 1.25. It'll now enter this game barely holding in the Top 100 of KenPom defensive efficiency ratings.

Kentucky's defensive issues are still yet to be fixed, and its pick-and-roll defense — which has ranked in the Bottom 16% of the country — will continue to struggle. Back the Over in this spot. There is plenty in our favor to do so. 

My best bet: Over 163.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 

Kentucky vs Arkansas same-game parlay

Tre Mitchell 15+ points

Over 163.5

+260 at bet365

I'm taking the Over and pairing it with one Kentucky player prop. 

As mentioned above, Mitchell has faced two porous cutting defenses in conference play, scoring Over 20 points against them. We'll go safe and grab him to reach the 15-point threshold, and after all, why not? He's demonstrated an ability to attack these defenses at will and hit this number in two of his last three games. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kentucky vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis

Roughly, my projections see Kentucky with a 3-point win. At the same time, that would usually signal placing a bet on an Arkansas spread that has ballooned to 7.0. I can only do it with a bit of confidence, though. 

The Razorbacks are in a mega spot here, desperate for a win and with the Gameday crew in tow. However, they have been awful for a month, and I wonder how much talent remains on this roster.

Kentucky can blitz someone at any point, even with a subpar defensive performance. Given the Wildcats recent play, you wouldn't bet against them doing it here. If I had a lean, it would be the Razorbacks at +7 or more because that's too much to lay at Bud Walton. However, there's only a little conviction behind that.

The market has brought this total down, likely expecting a defensive improvement from Kentucky. However, it doesn't fully account for how much faster the Wildcats have played on the road. I'm backing a lot of points scored with tons of confidence here.

Kentucky vs Arkansas betting trend to know

Kentucky has hit the game total Over in 24 of their last 32 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Arkansas.

Kentucky vs Arkansas game info

Kentucky vs Arkansas key injuries

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