The final day of the SEC basketball slate sees a Top 25 matchup as the Missouri Tigers host the Kentucky Wildcats at Mizzou Arena.
My Kentucky vs Missouri predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 8 explain why there will be plenty of action for the home fans to enjoy in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Kentucky vs Missouri prediction
My best bet
Missouri team total Over 87.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
While the Missouri Tigers have lost three of their last four games, all three of those defeats have come away from home. And even in defeat, scoring points hasn’t been a problem.
The Tigers scored 1.21 points per possession against Oklahoma in a 12-point loss, the fifth time in six outings they’ve posted at least 1.20 per trip.
That equaled 84 points, as Mizzou topped 80 points for the seventh consecutive contest. During that stretch it's scored 87 or more on four occasions, and against the Kentucky Wildcats, I'll be surprised if the Tigers don’t reach the 90-point mark.
The Wildcats have had serious problems limiting offense against teams that can get out and run against them. While they’ve won many of those games — an up-tempo contest suits them — it’s been because of their ability to generate offense at the other end.
When the Wildcats play teams that keep pace and run an efficient offense, the point totals have been quite high. They allowed 90+ points in both their games against Alabama, and did the same in their outings against Florida and Auburn.
One aspect where Kentucky has truly struggled is defending in the half court. UK ranks 279th in 2-point shooting defense, and during SEC play, opponents shot 57.3% from inside the arc. That’s the worst mark in the conference.
The Wildcats also allow 101.4 points per 100 possessions during conference play, the third-most in the SEC. That’s great news for the hosts, who rank 16th nationally in 2-point rate and 11th in eFG%.
Missouri also ranks in the Top 30 in 3-point percentages for the season. According to ShotQuality, Kentucky ranks 356th in spacing, but has been quite fortunate opponents have only hit on 61% of open looks from long range.
It'll be problematic if the Tigers get those looks as Missouri makes nearly 80% of open 3-point attempts. The Tigers also average 1.26 PPP when attempting a 3-point shot off the dribble.
Why is that last part important? Because Mizzou is one of the best teams in the nation at turning teams over with steals. The Tigers are Top 10 in steal rate, and score more than 20% of their points in transition.
Missouri doesn’t turn the ball over much, and Kentucky doesn’t force many turnovers. The Tigers will run their offense with high efficiency against a struggling Wildcat defense, and they’ll add enough baskets off live-ball turnovers to go Over on their team total for the 23rd time in 33 games.
Kentucky vs Missouri same-game parlay (SGP)
Missouri team total Over 87.5
Kentucky team total Over 82.5
Caleb Grill Over 2.5 threes
Amari Williams Over 2.5 assists
Against Oklahoma, Missouri allowed 1.38 PPP defensively after giving up 1.29 to Vanderbilt. The Tigers have given up 40+ points inside the paint in three of their last four games and now face a Kentucky team averaging almost 38 points in the paint per SEC contests. The Wildcats will get 83+ points for the fourth time in five games.
One of the players who will benefit the most from Kentucky’s defensive problems is Caleb Grill. Missouri’s leading scorer has made 3+ long-range efforts in four of his last five games, and is shooting better than 51% at home from beyond the arc. He will get chances at open looks in transition and hit another trio of trifectas.
Missouri’s interior defensive woes will provide plenty of opportunities for Amari Williams to set up teammates. Kentucky’s big man often operates from the high post and has exceptional vision.
He leads the Wildcats with an assist rate of 30%, which is Top 5 in all of the SEC. He’s got 3+ assists in 12 of 17 conference outings, and will reach that floor for the fifth straight game.
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Kentucky vs Missouri odds
Kentucky vs Missouri live odds
Kentucky vs Missouri opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky +5.5 | Missouri -5.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky +170 | Missouri -210
- Over/Under: Over 169.5 | Under 169.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kentucky vs Missouri betting trend to know
Missouri has hit the team total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.24 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Missouri.
How to watch Kentucky vs Missouri
| Location | Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO |
| Date | Saturday, 3-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Missouri key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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