A hobbled Kentucky team travels to Austin to take on a reeling Texas team in an important conference clash tonight.
The Wildcats are without two of their best players and are losing ground on getting a double bye in the SEC Tournament. Meanwhile, the Longhorns have lost four of five and are seeing their NCAA Tournament odds begin to slip.
Defense has been an issue for both sides, and my Kentucky vs. Texas predictions and college basketball picks are backing a high-scoring contest on Saturday, February 15.
Kentucky vs Texas prediction
My best bet
Over 159 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Texas is coming off its two worst performances of the season in terms of defensive efficiency. Vanderbilt posted a 122.6 points per 100 possessions, and then Alabama posted a whopping 143.5 mark in its 103-80 blowout win on Tuesday night.
A big reason for Alabama’s outstanding performance was its 3-point shooting. The Tide nailed 17 of their 29 efforts from deep, making as many shots outside the arc as they did inside of it.
That bodes well for Kentucky as it heads into Austin. The Wildcats possess a Top 20 3-point attack on the season and made 12 long-range efforts in their win over Tennessee on Tuesday night.
However, the Wildcats have struggled on defense during SEC play, especially when they’ve been without the services of point guard Lamont Butler. His stellar on-ball defense on the perimeter makes this defense much more efficient, and they’ve looked like Swiss cheese when Butler's been unable to suit up.
With big man Arthur Kaluma doubtful for Texas, the Longhorns will need their wing players to produce. Tre Johnson should do just that, as the leader scorer has averaged nearly 21 points over his last five games.
While Johnson is shooting just 32.9% from outside in conference play, he is facing a Kentucky defense that is ripe for regression in its 3-point defense. The Wildcats sit 323rd in outside shot frequency but 16th in 3-point shooting percentage against. This is due to opponents making just 33% of their open looks, despite Kentucky ranking 356th in ShotQualityBets’ spacing metric and 222nd in open 3-point rate.
And while Kentucky will be without Butler and guard Jaxson Robinson, it still has plenty of players who can hit from distance. Mark Pope’s offense is a high-tempo system that thrives on getting open perimeter shots, and the Longhorns rank 12th in SEC play in their perimeter defense.
Texas has allowed at least 78 points in three straight contests, and Kentucky can’t prevent teams from scoring without Butler. There will be plenty of opportunities for both teams to put up points, so I’ll back the Over tonight.
Kentucky vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 159.5
Texas moneyline
Otega Oweh 1+ threes / Tre Johnson 3+ threes
While Kentucky has the third-most Quad-1 wins this season, it has a real problem with getting up for games against unranked teams. The Wildcats have lost seven games this season, and five of them have come against teams outside the Top 25. They’re also just 2-3 on the road in SEC play, and they’ll fall without Butler and Robinson.
Otega Oweh is Kentucky’s leading scorer, and he’ll need to pick up some slack with Robinson out. He’s seen an uptick of late in his outside shooting, making four of his seven attempts in the last three games, and I’ll back him to hit another triple for the fourth game running.
We mentioned Johnson’s improved shooting at home, and he’s liable to get quality looks against a Kentucky defense struggling to prevent open shots. He has made at least three shots outside the arc in three consecutive contests, averaging nearly eight attempts during that span, and he’ll be good for a trio of treys in this one.
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Kentucky vs Texas odds
Kentucky vs Texas live odds
Kentucky vs Texas opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky +3 (-110) | Texas -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kentucky +130 | Texas -155
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 (-110) | Under 159.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kentucky vs Texas betting trend to know
The Longhorns have hit the game total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Texas.
How to watch Kentucky vs Texas
| Location | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, 2-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Texas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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