The NCAA Tournament is one of the biggest betting events on the sports calendar and comes to a close when the Florida Gators take on the Houston Cougars for the National Championship tonight.
Sportsbook operators are calling for a close one, with a slim spread and tight total for the championship game.
Here’s a look at the March Madness odds, line moves, and March Madness picks drawing the most action as we close in on the 8:50 p.m. ET tipoff.
National Championship betting splits
Moneyline
Before the Final Four, lookahead lines had Florida as a -125 outright favorite versus Houston in the national championship. After UF beat Auburn and UH stunned Duke, the Gators re-opened as -115 moneyline favorites.
Those outright winner prices haven’t moved much since opening Saturday night. On game day, you can find Florida as short as -109 (Houston best at -105) at some books. Some operators have essentially made this game a pick’em with both teams at -110 flat.
Bettors should note that these moneyline markets will reflect any remaining liability in the NCAA Tournament futures book — and are not necessarily an accurate representation of a team’s odds of winning the game.
Plenty of bookmakers were still vulnerable to a Florida championship, as the Gators reportedly boasted the second-highest handle of the tournament field.
According to BetMGM, 53% of the ticket count and 55% of the handle on the moneyline is siding with the “underdog” Cougars. At DraftKings Sportsbooks, however, those moneyline splits are flipped, with UF drawing 56% of bets and 62% of the handle to win the national title tonight.
Point spread
Look-ahead lines listed the Gators as 1.5-point favorites against the Cougars and most books stayed on point once this title game pairing was official Saturday night. Some bookies went lower and opened UF -1 (-110).
As of Monday afternoon, the books that opened Florida -1 are still there but have juggled the juice around to -105 with some action showing on Houston. The operators that opened UF -1.5 are dealing that same spread but the vig on the favorite is up to EVEN money.
At bet365, the Gators moved from -1.5 (-110) to -1 (-105) but it was all UF action early on and 63% of bet count is still taking Florida as the tiny chalk.
Our Covers Consensus numbers, derived from our contest platform (and giving a good indication of what seasoned sports bettors are taking), are very close with 52% of spread picks laying the short number with Florida.
Books like DraftKings are reporting heavier action on the Gators, with 69% of the bet count and 73% of the money riding with Florida ATS. BetMGM is seeing similar love for UF, with 61% of bets but just 53% of the handle on the Gators — an indication that larger bets are taking the Cougars +1.5.
Total
The Over/Under total could be the compelling market for the National Championship Game. You have the top-ranked defense in Houston taking on a high-powered Florida offense.
The look-ahead total was 143.5 points, but the official title game O/U hit the board as high as 141.5 on Saturday night. From there, Under action showed up early and dropped this number to as low as 140 points. As of Monday afternoon, this total sits between 140.5 and 141 points.
“That line sees a fairly close split, considering the Overs are more often than not the large majority of plays for these type of championship games,” Aron Wattleworth, trading leader for bet365, says. “The action on this one is seeing the Overs gaining a rate of approximately 55%.”
“With a classic high-scoring offense in Florida versus the classic lockdown defense of Houston, the style matchup winner will likely dictate not only who wins the game, but whether it’s Over or Under.”
BetMGM sportsbooks have an interesting split, with 56% of the bet count on the Over but 61% of the money on the Under. DraftKings is showing the same, with 54% of bets on the Over and 55% of handles on the Under. According to Covers Consensus, 60% of total picks are taking the Over.
Covers Florida vs Houston betting tools
- Florida vs. Houston prediction
- Florida vs. Houston prop picks
- Florida vs. Houston same-game parlay
- Florida vs. Houston AI predictions
- Walter Clayton Jr. prop picks
- L.J. Cryer prop picks
- March Madness picks
- March Madness odds
- March Madness odds boosts
Props
It’s no surprise to see Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. and his scoring prop as the most popular prop bet for the national title game.
Clayton’s scoring total opened at 19.5 points O/U with the Over padded at -120. That Over is up to -140 at some operators and has drawn the most tickets as has Clayton Over 3.5 assists. That prop is asking as high as -135 on Monday afternoon.
Other notable player props include Houston guard L.J. Cryer going Over 2.5 threes. This Over opened as short as +110, but one-sided opinions have swung this option to as high as -150 at some shops.
Cryer’s teammate J’Wan Roberts is the most popular pick in the rebounding props, with a strong opinion on him to top 6.5 rebounds versus Florida. That prop opened at Over 6.5 -115 and is now as expensive as -125 depending on where you wager.
Most Outstanding Player
The top individual honor for the NCAA Tournament is essentially a two-horse race at this point according to the March Madness MOP odds.
Florida star Walter Clayton Jr. has carried the Gators to the title game with his sensational scoring and is listed between -105 and +100 to win “Most Outstanding Player” after opening at +600 before the tournament.
Books are breathing easy when it comes to the MOP market, after watching favorites Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome get eliminated in the semifinals. However, there is still some remaining liability on UF’s superstar, according to BetMGM which lists Clayton as its second worst result.
L.J. Cryer is the next notable on the MOP odds board, sitting around +150 at most shops. Cryer, who opened at +1400 to win the award, hasn’t been as dominant as his UF counterpart but is coming off a 26-point performance versus Duke, in which he hit six 3-pointers.
“Cryer has had early interest at prices of +1400 down to +1000, with largest single play being $250 at +1000 from a North Carolina-based bettor,” says Wattleworth. “Either player would be a good result, with Clayton repping the lower liability of the two.”
