It’s not exactly the matchup most people had dotting their March Madness bracket at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Yet, the No. 6-seeded Clemson Tigers and No. 4-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide are here, and one will be moving up the March Madness odds board after Saturday night.
For our purposes, we’re looking at the March Madness props, and not surprisingly, they feature each team’s best player so far and an outlier performance that probably won't be sustained.
Find out where I'm looking in my free March Madness picks below.
Clemson vs Alabama March Madness props
- Hunter Over 15.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
- Sears Over 20.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)
- Nelson Under 11.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Clemson vs Alabama March Madness props
Prop bet #1: The Chase continues
Talk about riding the NCAA Tournament wave. That’s the only way you can describe the punch-up effort of Clemson Tigers senior guard Chase Hunter.
He finished the regular season averaging 12.9 points per game, a total that was outside the Top 30 in the ACC, and outside the Top 400 in the nation. The switch has been flipped though, and Hunter has led Clemson in scoring in all three tournament games, averaging 19.7 points on 51.2% shooting.
His latest was a crisp 18-point, 7-rebound, 5-assist gem in the Sweet 16, as the Tigers dispatched No. 2-seeded Arizona by five. Bookmakers might not still believe it, as his line against Alabama is set at 15.5 points.
Hunter has been playing pretty well in the leadup to the tournament too, and he’s scored 16 + points in eight of his last 12. He's also in a dream scoring matchup against the Crimson Tide. Alabama is a lot of things, but a defensive stalwart it is not. They rank 353rd in college basketball, surrendering 81.1 points per game.
His bubble will eventually burst, but it won't come on Saturday.
Chase Hunter prop: Over 15.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Right on the Mark
If you want to talk about lines you should jump on, look no further than the scoring prop set at 20.5 for Alabama’s Mark Sears. The SEC’s regular-season scoring leader at 21.4 points per game, Sears is coming off an 18-point performance in ‘Bama’s 89-87 upset of the top-seeded UNC.
The guy is a model of scoring consistency and this was a minor blip in performance against a very good team. It’s the first time Sears failed to crack 20 in his last nine games and just the third time in the last 22 contests.
Clemson might be able to provide some semblance of resistance — they did allow just 70.7 points per game on the year, inside the Top 150 in the NCAA, and limited teams to 41.2% shooting (57th).
The thing is, Sears has been doing this against top competition for a while. Part of his scoring spree has come against Top-25 opponents in Kentucky, Florida, Auburn (twice), and Tennessee (twice).
He hasn’t gone sub-20 in back-to-back games since December and will get right against Clemson.
Mark Sears prop: Over 20.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Back to reality
File Grant Nelson’s performance against UNC in the “Where did that come from?” category. The senior forward picked an ideal time to have the game of his life, scoring 24 points, grabbing 12 boards, and swatting five shots against the Tar Heels.
The 24 points match a season-best mark that Nelson hit in Game 1 of the Tide’s season, the 12 rebounds are the second-most in a game this year, and the five blocks were his best this season.
How outlandish was that effort? Well, consider that in the previous two tournament games, Nelson had six points, two boards, and two blocks total against Grand Canyon and Charleston.
Oddsmakers have set his scoring line at 11.5 points, a figure that Nelson had topped just twice in his last seven games before his UNC performance. He'd attempted just seven shots and eight free throws in his two previous games before hoisting up nine shots and making 13 trips to the stripe.
Look for Nelson to revert back to the mean after his superhuman effort on Thursday.
Grant Nelson prop: Under 11. 5 points (-130 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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