The No. 11 Duquesne Dukes will have the first chance to be a March Madness odds Cinderella in this year’s March Madness bracket, sitting as near double-digit underdogs against the No. 6 BYU Cougars in the second game on today's slate.
If that wasn’t storyline enough, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot added to this week’s intrigue by announcing he will retire after this season. Winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament — getting the Dukes into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1977 — could be enough of a storybook ending... but could Dambrot's squad be viable to back for March Madness picks and give him one more win for his career?
Let’s ponder that chance of a March Madness upset as I give my best college basketball picks for Duquesne vs. BYU today.
Duquesne vs BYU best odds
Duquesne vs BYU picks and predictions
Good morning, BYU Cougars. Your reward for being one of the country’s Top-20 teams for much of the season and reaching the Top 10 by advanced numbers in early February is an early morning wake-up against an annoying defense playing better than almost any other right now.
Dambrot’s final team is built entirely around its defense, one that Ken Pomeroy considers the No. 28 most efficient defense in the country. And KenPom may be underselling the Dukes. Focus on games since Feb. 15, and Duquesne’s defense ranks No. 8, per barttorvik.com.
The Duquesne Dukes bothers opponents most by limiting 3-point attempts. And when opponents do take shots from beyond the arc, they are ugly shots. Atlantic-10 foes shot 29.5% from deep against the Dukes, the lowest in the conference and more than four percentage points below the national average.
Sure, some of that may be the quality of the competition, but outperforming the national average by that much underscores the legitimacy of Duquesne’s defense.
It will be exceptionally applicable in this exact matchup. BYU lives and dies from deep. The Cougars took 51.4% of their field goals from three in Big 12 play. For context, the national average is 37.3%. BYU’s worry is that it does not make an exorbitant amount of those looks, hitting at just 32.6% in conference games.
The concept is simple, and one that certainly fits modern basketball. The Cougars play at a helter-skelter pace — No. 2 in the Big 12, No. 85 in the country — that leads to layups and 3s. But if Duquesne can dictate the pace a bit — No. 251 in the country in tempo — then BYU’s open layups will be fewer, and those threes will fall victim to the Dukes' defense.
Duquesne’s track record is rather adamant about that pace. The Dukes average 66 possessions per game, and their last eight games were all at 67 possessions or fewer, including six at 62 or 63 possessions. In all Atlantic 10 play, Duquesne was sped up to 70 or more possessions in just three of 22 games despite having six games against teams in the top third of the country in pace. (Those teams went 2-3-1 against their team totals.)
This game will tip off before 11 a.m. on BYU’s bodies. A sluggish start would be understandable and would play right into Duquesne’s wants.
My best bet: BYU team total Under 75.5 (-106 at BetRivers)
Duquesne vs BYU same-game parlay
BYU team total Under 76.5 points
Jaxson Robinson Under 12.5 points
Duquesne +9.5
No one in BYU’s rotation is more dependent on the 3-pointer than senior wing Jaxson Robinson, 75-of-217 this season, 34.6%. Taking nearly seven threes per game, he may struggle to see half of that against Duquesne. Without multiple threes, Robinson should struggle to crack double digits.
A slower game dictated by the underdog’s defense obviously skews the game toward the four-bucket underdog in general. The Dukes might not spring the upset to cap Dambrot’s career, but they should keep things interesting enough to garner your attention on the first day of March Madness.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Duquesne vs BYU spread and Over/Under analysis
When this matchup was first announced, BYU was set as just a 7.5-point favorite, a number that climbed to -8.5 by Monday’s sunrise and -9.5 by Monday’s lunch.
That line movement runs counter to the trend lines from these two teams in the last month. Up until Feb. 14, barttorvik considered BYU to be the No. 9 team in the country, one led by the No. 8 offense. In the last month, it has been the No. 48 team with the No. 21 most-efficient offense.
Meanwhile, Duquesne improved from being the No. 102 team before Feb. 14 to being the No. 46 team since. Yes, these numbers suggest the Dukes have been the better of these two teams in the last month.
The total opened at 140.5 and jumped to 142.5 yet on Sunday, settling at 142 on Monday. That kind of move fits with the rise in the spread, a BYU blowout likely coming via a high-scoring game.
Duquesne vs BYU betting trend to know
Nine of Duquesne’s last 11 games went Under their pregame totals. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duquesne vs. BYU.
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Duquesne vs BYU game info
| Location: | CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, NE |
| Date: | Thursday, March 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | truTV |
Duquesne vs BYU key injuries
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