What do we do now?
Basketball bettors, spoiled by mid-week postseason hoops since the NCAA Tournament tipped off, now have an extended break in Big Dance betting with the Final Four slated for Saturday.
Sure, you could wager on some of those “other” tournaments to help pass the time. Or you could keep a close eye on the line movement around those two Final Four contests and March Madness odds, trying to snatch the best of the side and total.
With the bulk of bets coming closer to the weekend, we map out the best times to bet on the Final Four odds: now or later.
Final Four bet now, bet later picks
- Duke (-4.5) vs. UNC: Bet Now
- Villanova (+4.5) vs. Kansas: Bet Later
- Villanova vs. Kanas (Under 133) : Bet Now
- Duke vs. UNC (Under 151.5): Bet Later
Picks made on 3/28/2022. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Duke Blue Devils (-4.5) vs North Carolina Tar Heels: Bet Now
After it was clear the Tar Heels were going to advance past Saint Peter’s (about 15 minutes into that game) online books started tossing up early odds on this “momma of all NCAA games”. Duke hit the board as a 4-point favorite and jumped as high as -5 before the market consensus settled in at Blue Devils -4.5.
North Carolina has already played spoiler to Mike Krzyzewski's farewell tour, knocking off Duke in Coach K’s final game inside Cameron Indoor Stadium, but the Blue Devils are playing well beyond their years in the tournament. Duke has gone through Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Arkansas to set up this showdown with their Tobacco Road rivals.
The Heels, who were 11-point road underdogs in that March 5 finale in Durham (winning 94-81), have had a pretty impressive run through the Big Dance as well, packing up Marquette, No. 1 Baylor, and UCLA before plucking the Cinderella Peacocks in the Elite Eight.
Betting patterns have seen action puff up the Blue Devils’ spread the past two games versus TTU and Arkansas, and early play on this Final Four spread (most likely sharper play) laid the -4 and added a half-point hook to the Dukies (despite early consensus numbers leaning heavily to UNC). As for North Carolina, bettors backed them versus Saint Peter’s (moving from -8 to -9.5) but faded UNC in matchups with UCLA and Baylor.
Currently, most shops are a flat -110 on the 4.5-point spread, but we are seeing some books tick up to Duke -4.5 (-114). There will be interest in North Carolina but once CBS gets a hold of this one, the Coach K storybook, and the Duke revenge angle — plus legions of Blue and White Cameron Crazies — could push this spread back to -5. If you’re buying the Blue Devils, do it now.
Villanova Wildcats (+4.5) vs. Kansas Jayhawks: Bet Later
Recency bias, with KU winning Sunday and Villanova playing Saturday, and the injury to Villanova guard Justin Moore is swinging this spread in favor of Kansas.
The No. 1-seeded Jayhawks opened as low as -3.5 and spent less than an hour at that spread before moving through -4 in a matter of minutes and landing on -4.5. Most bookies are dealing KU -4.5 flat but we’re seeing the vig creep up ever so slightly on the favorite, sitting as high as Kansas -4.5 (-113). Our Covers Consensus shows 65% of early picks laying the points with the Jayhawks.
If you’re leaning Villanova and the points in this semifinal showdown, you may want to slow your roll and see if you can get a +5 on the Wildcats. Nova isn’t the sexiest team left in the bracket, with its gritty defense and snails-pace offense, but it’s been enough to cover the spread in all four of its NCAA games so far. The loss of Moore is big for the Wildcats (15.3 ppg) but his injury was already baked into the opener of Villanova +3.5. Had he stayed healthy, this line would be closer to Kansas -1 or -1.5.
Kansas is 2-2 ATS in the Big Dance and looked far from a No. 1 seed in its last two and a half games, slogging it out with Providence and Creighton and trailing Miami by six points at the half before showing up for the final 20 minutes of the Elite Eight. The Jayhawks had issues with Texas and Oklahoma — the two Big 12 team that mimic Villanova’s methodical pace — going 1-3 ATS in those games and needing OT for that lone payday.
If you aren’t rocking the chalk with Rock Chalk, then wait out for more points with the Wildcats.
Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks (Under 133): Bet Now
As much as we praise Villanova’s defense, Kansas is right there with Jay Wright’s guys in terms of turning out the lights. These programs rank 17th and 18th respectively in KenPom’s all-powerful adjusted defensive efficiency metric — a telltale stat for Final Four teams.
The total for Saturday’s semifinal opened as low as 132 points, jumped briefly to 133, and has dropped back to 132.5 or 132 at many shops. However, a few places are still hanging 133 (Under -110) as of Monday morning.
The Wildcats, who just lost their second leading scorer, are fantastic at throwing a wrench in any team’s tempo and face a KU squad that ranks 61st in pace. In its most recent matchup with Texas (which sits 336th in tempo above Villanova at 345th), Kansas won 70-63 in overtime and still stayed below the 137-point total despite the extra frame.
The Under has been a profitable bet during the Big Dance, going 29-35 O/U overall and 1-11 O/U during the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. The Wildcats and Jayhawks have had their hand in those results, both 1-3 Over/Under in their four tournament tilts. If you’re banking on some “boring ball," grab the Under 133 now.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils (Under 151.5): Bet Later
Despite a long-heated rivalry in the ACC, Duke and UNC have never clashed in the NCAA Tournament. Not only does that bad blood boil over to a big audience on Saturday, but when you factor in Coach K’s swan song, this Final Four meeting is setting up to be the biggest game in college basketball history — EVER.
This will also be the most bet on college hoops game for sportsbooks — new and old — and that “Super Bowl” feel will draw in plenty of recreational gamblers who would love nothing more than to watch a high-scoring shootout between these popular power programs. And it could happen.
Both Duke and North Carolina are firing on all cylinders offensively and are loaded with pro-bound talent. The Blue Devils just chewed through three very good defensive teams and UNC has knocked down 42 triples in four tourney games. Just to throw gas on the fire, these foes have topped the total in six straight meetings with closing numbers of 153, 152.5, and 152.5 in the three most recent matchups.
Bettors have all the reasons in the world to like the Over and warrant an inflated number before Saturday night's tipoff, which is why — if you’re a contrarian curmudgeon — you should wait it out. Offshore operators opened this total as low as 149.5 points and if you believe in that early opinion, milk this monster of a game for every point you can before coming back on the Under late.
Final Four odds
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