March Madness Seed History: How Has No. 1 Fared vs No. 16?

Most basketball fans thought they would go their entire lives without seeing a No. 16 seed upsetting a No. 1 seed... until 2018 when UMBC made headlines around the world. We dig into the numbers and examine just how rare this feat actually is.

Matt Burke - Contributor at Covers.com
Matt Burke • Contributor
Mar 17, 2025 • 09:05 ET • 4 min read
The UMBC Retrievers bench reacts during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers.
Photo By - Imagn Images. The UMBC Retrievers bench reacts during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Upsets are a staple of March Madness, and there is no greater upset than a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed.

Below, we will examine the NCAA men's basketball tournament history of No. 1 vs. No. 16 games. 

How many times has a 16-seed beaten a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament?

There have been 156 1 vs. 16-seed games in the NCAA men's basketball tournament, and a 16-seed prevailed just twice.

Both of those 16 seed wins have come rather recently. 

The first school to pull off the Holy Grail of upsets was UMBC in 2018. UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) took down Virginia in an all-time stunner. 

The second school to pull off the upset-of-all-upsets was Fairleigh Dickinson, which toppled 1-seeded Purdue in 2023.

What are the odds that a 16 seed beats a 1 seed?

There is a 1.282% chance that a 16 seed beats a 1 seed.

UMBC entered its 2018 game against Virginia as a +2500 moneyline underdog. Fairleigh Dickinson, meanwhile, was a +2100 moneyline dog to Purdue in 2023.

We will likely never see a team with +2500 moneyline odds again in the NCAA tournament considering that a 16-seed beating a 1-seed is now recognized as a true possibility.

All four 1 seeds won in the first round last year. Here is a look at their moneyline odds heading into their respective first-round games:

  • Houston Houston -6500
  • North Carolina North Carolina -10000
  • Purdue Purdue -6500
  • UConn UConn -20000

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How rare is it for a 16 seed to beat a 1 seed?

The prevailing mindset among most college basketball junkies up until 2018 was that they would go their entire lives without witnessing a 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed. After all, 16 seeds were 0-135 heading into the UMBC vs. Virginia game.

Not only did UMBC upset Virginia on March 16, 2018, they blew out the Cavaliers by a score of 74-54.

UMBC was a +20.5 underdog heading into the game.

Prior to the UMBC upset of Virginia, the closest call in March Madness history came in 1989. Sixteen-seed Princeton lost to 1-seed Georgetown by just a point, 50-49. This was a Georgetown team that featured five future NBA players including Alonzo Mourning and Dikembe Mutombo.

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Matt Burke - Covers
Contributor

Matt Burke has been a sports and sports betting journalist for over 20 years. He was the school newspaper beat writer for UConn basketball (men’s and women’s) during his college days and then began his professional career in sports media. He has covered everything from high school football to Super Bowls and Final Fours.

He was born and raised in Massachusetts but also spent a few years in sunny San Diego, California, accomplishing every eight-year-old boy’s dream - writing the bios on the back of baseball cards.

Matt began writing and editing sports betting content in 2018, founding MetroBet - a sports betting content platform under the Metro Newspapers umbrella (now AMNY).

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