Upsets are a staple of March Madness, and there is no greater upset than a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed.
Below, we will examine the NCAA men's basketball tournament history of No. 1 vs. No. 16 games.
How many times has a 16-seed beaten a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament?
There have been 156 1 vs. 16-seed games in the NCAA men's basketball tournament, and a 16-seed prevailed just twice.
Both of those 16 seed wins have come rather recently.
The first school to pull off the Holy Grail of upsets was UMBC in 2018. UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) took down Virginia in an all-time stunner.
1 vs. 16. An incredible upset. A Twitter legend.
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) November 15, 2018
UMBC vs. UVA: Bracket Busted brings you four unique perspectives on @UMBCAthletics’ stunning upset over Virginia, Monday on CBS Sports Network. pic.twitter.com/x6vQtFKrqi
The second school to pull off the upset-of-all-upsets was Fairleigh Dickinson, which toppled 1-seeded Purdue in 2023.
Fairleigh Dickinson University basketball coach Tobin Anderson stops by the TODAY plaza to talk about his team’s major upset during March Madness when they defeated No. 1 seed Purdue. pic.twitter.com/nrNfxN3App
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) March 20, 2023
What are the odds that a 16 seed beats a 1 seed?
There is a 1.282% chance that a 16 seed beats a 1 seed.
UMBC entered its 2018 game against Virginia as a +2500 moneyline underdog. Fairleigh Dickinson, meanwhile, was a +2100 moneyline dog to Purdue in 2023.
We will likely never see a team with +2500 moneyline odds again in the NCAA tournament considering that a 16-seed beating a 1-seed is now recognized as a true possibility.
All four 1 seeds won in the first round last year. Here is a look at their moneyline odds heading into their respective first-round games:
Houston -6500
North Carolina -10000
Purdue -6500
UConn -20000
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How rare is it for a 16 seed to beat a 1 seed?
The prevailing mindset among most college basketball junkies up until 2018 was that they would go their entire lives without witnessing a 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed. After all, 16 seeds were 0-135 heading into the UMBC vs. Virginia game.
Not only did UMBC upset Virginia on March 16, 2018, they blew out the Cavaliers by a score of 74-54.
UMBC was a +20.5 underdog heading into the game.
Prior to the UMBC upset of Virginia, the closest call in March Madness history came in 1989. Sixteen-seed Princeton lost to 1-seed Georgetown by just a point, 50-49. This was a Georgetown team that featured five future NBA players including Alonzo Mourning and Dikembe Mutombo.
