March Madness 2 vs 15 Seed History: Who Will Defy the Odds in 2025?

It's become increasingly common in recent years to see a No. 2 seed knock off a No. 15 seed in the NCAA Tournament. We examine every time it's happened and present the odds of it happening again in 2025.

Matt Burke - Contributor at Covers.com
Matt Burke • Contributor
Mar 17, 2025 • 09:08 ET • 4 min read
Saint Peter's Peacocks head coach Shaheen Hollway reacts after defeating the Kentucky Wildcats during the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Saint Peter's Peacocks head coach Shaheen Hollway reacts after defeating the Kentucky Wildcats during the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

Major upsets are a big part of what makes March Madness so special.

The No. 2 vs. No. 15 matchups always offer intrigue, as we’ve seen David topple Goliath many times throughout the years.

Below, we will look at the history of 15 seeds versus 2 seeds in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

How many times has a 15 seed beaten a 2 seed in March Madness?

In 156 NCAA Tournament matchups, the 15 seed has knocked off the 2 seed 11 times. That’s a record of 11-145. 

So, it happens... just not every year.

We did not see a 15-seed win last year. In 2023, however, Princeton stunned 2-seed Arizona. 

Crazy enough, that was the third straight March in which a 15 seed won a game. In 2022, Saint Peter’s shocked Kentucky, and in 2021 Oral Roberts defeated Ohio State.

What are the odds that a 15 seed wins against a 2 seed?

Teams seeded No. 15 have a 7.05% chance of beating a 2 seed. These odds are increasing over time, likely due to more and more parity in college basketball.

Consider that in the 1990s, a 2 seed beating a 15 seed occurred just three times. In the 2000s, it happened just once.

The turning point happened early in the 2010s. In 2012, there were a pair of No. 15 vs. No. 2 upsets in the same tournament. Another came in 2013, and yet another came in 2016.

There have been three so far this decade, and we aren’t even halfway through it.


Popular March Madness markets


No. 2 vs. No. 15 seed history

Here is a look at the 11 times a No. 15 seed has upset a No. 2 seed.

  • 2023: Princeton over Arizona, 59-55
  • 2022: Saint Peter’s over Kentucky, 85-79
  • 2021: Oral Roberts over Ohio State, 75-72
  • 2016: Middle Tennessee over Michigan State, 90-81
  • 2013: Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown, 78-68
  • 2012: Norfolk State over Missouri, 86-84
  • 2012: Lehigh over Duke, 75-70
  • 2001: Hampton over Iowa State, 58-57
  • 1997: Coppin State over South Carolina, 78-65
  • 1993: Santa Clara over Arizona, 64-61
  • 1991: Richmond over Syracuse, 73-69

Pages related to this topic

Matt Burke - Covers
Contributor

Matt Burke has been a sports and sports betting journalist for over 20 years. He was the school newspaper beat writer for UConn basketball (men’s and women’s) during his college days and then began his professional career in sports media. He has covered everything from high school football to Super Bowls and Final Fours.

He was born and raised in Massachusetts but also spent a few years in sunny San Diego, California, accomplishing every eight-year-old boy’s dream - writing the bios on the back of baseball cards.

Matt began writing and editing sports betting content in 2018, founding MetroBet - a sports betting content platform under the Metro Newspapers umbrella (now AMNY).

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo