Two teams that are riding high after dominant wins in their conference tournament finals will face off tonight as the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers take on the American Eagles in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament.
Both teams have trended hard towards the Under as of late, and my Mount St. Mary’s vs. American predictions and March Madness picks will be riding that wave on Wednesday, March 19.
Who will win Mount St. Mary's vs American?
While neither of these teams has much hope of being competitive in the next round, this is an excellent matchup between two evenly matched squads. They also have a long history of playing each other on an almost yearly basis.
American has won four straight in this series and has the slightest of edges according to most analytical models, so I’m taking the Eagles to pull out a victory in a tight contest.
Mount St. Mary's vs American prediction
My best bet: Under 129 (-110 at bet365)
A quick look at how both these teams have played lately shows a clear move to a lower-scoring brand of basketball in postseason play.
The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers have hit the Under in five straight games heading into March Madness, averaging a total of 121.4 ppg in that stretch. The American Eagles have similarly hit the Under in five of their last six games overall, playing to an average total of 124.3 ppg in those contests.
That alone wouldn’t be enough for me to immediately jump on the Under, but there are season-long stats that have me leaning that way as well. American is one of the slowest teams in the country, with KenPom rating the Eagles 349th in terms of pace, while the Mountaineers aren’t looking to push things tempo-wise either.
Neither team has been efficient or especially effective on offense. American is shooting only 44.3% from the field this year while averaging 68.6 ppg, while Mount St. Mary’s is only hitting 44.2% of its shots. Both teams have shot a bit under 35% from beyond the arc as well.
The Eagles have only one player averaging at least 11 ppg in Matt Rogers (17.0 ppg), while the Mountaineers are led by Dola Adebayo, who is averaging 13.2 ppg.
These teams don’t shoot well, don’t play quickly, and have tightened their playstyles as they’ve moved into postseason basketball. Based on everything I’ve seen from both teams, the Under looks like the clear pick for tonight’s First Four game.
Mount St. Mary's vs American same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 129.5
American moneyline
Matt Rogers 15+ points
30% boost available
This is going to be a close game, but American is the slightly better team. That’s not enough for me to want to give away the 2.5 points on the spread, but I’ll take the Eagles to pull out a victory and move into the main tournament field, adding American on the moneyline to the Under in my same-game parlay.
I’ll also take American forward Matt Rogers to score at least 15 points tonight.
Rogers is averaging 17.0 ppg, and while this game will likely be played at a slow pace, that’s nothing new for American, which is consistently among the slowest teams in the country. Rogers has scored 15+ points in four of his last five games, and I expect him to do so again in this contest.
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Mount St. Mary's vs American odds
Mount St. Mary's vs American live odds
Mount St. Mary's vs American opening odds
- Spread: Mount St. Mary's +2.5 | American -2.5
- Moneyline: Mount St. Mary's +129 | American -152
- Over/Under: Over 132.5 | Under 132.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mount St. Mary's vs American betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Mount St. Mary’s last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mount St. Mary's vs. American.
How to watch Mount St. Mary's vs American
| Region | East |
| Location | UD Arena, Dayton, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
Mount St. Mary's vs American key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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