No.4 UCLA Bruins (25-7) return to March Madness a year removed from an awe-inspiring Final Four appearance as an 11th-seeded First Four participant. They will open against the No. 13 Akron Zips (24-9), who rattled off three straight wins as underdogs in the MAC tournament to punch their ticket for the tournament.
March Madness odds have UCLA as 13.5 favorites, but can they cover such a large number? Find out in our free March Madness picks and predictions for Akron vs. UCLA.
Akron vs UCLA odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
UCLA opened as 13.5 point favorites and have mostly stayed at that number. The total opened at 129 and has since slipped to 128.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Akron vs UCLA predictions
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 12:46 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for March Madness, here are two of the best bonuses available:
USA: New users at FanDuel can bet $5 on any March Madness tournament game and win $150 in site credits (30/1 odds) — regardless of if your bet wins or loses! Sign Up Now
Canada: New users can join the bet365 bracket challenge, where $125,000 goes to the winner and you have a shot at winning $6 million! Sign Up Now
Akron vs UCLA game info
• Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:57 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV
Akron vs UCLA betting preview
Injuries
Akron: No injuries to report.
UCLA: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
No. 4 seeds favored by 10+ points are 6-13 ATS since 2006. Akron has gone 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season, winning eight of those games straight up. Find more NCAA betting trends for Akron vs. UCLA.
Akron vs UCLA picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
UCLA has had quite the 2022 season. After splitting the two marquee games in their non-conference schedule by beating Villanova and dropping to Gonzaga, the Bruins went an entire month without playing due to a COVID-related suspension of play.
When they returned in January, they managed to drop just one game all month (a loss to Oregon) and picked up a 16-point win against Arizona.
Immediately after, the Bruins hit the road for four straight games in the toughest stretch of their schedule. They dropped all but one game, giving a win back to Arizona, lost a triple-overtime game to Arizona State, and finished the road trip with a tough defeat to USC.
From there UCLA managed to get back on track, closing the regular season with another month-long stretch of dropping just a single game (and again, to Oregon).
It closed that stretch by getting revenge on USC and rolled into the Pac-12 tournament by bouncing the Spartans in the semifinals before dropping to Arizona in the championship game.
UCLA now finds itself in the East Region as a fourth seed, and an argument could be made it is the strongest team in it. Top-seeded Baylor has struggled with injuries resulting in inconsistent play all season, and LJ Cryer's status continues to be a mystery.
Questions surround No. 2 Kentucky given it managed just a 7-7 record against tournament teams this year. Purdue profiles as a weaker third seed given how poor its defense is.
But to those points, UCLA also has red flags in its resume. It managed just a 4-4 record against teams in the tournament field and put up a lackluster 5-4 record in Quadrant-1 games this year.
It also has two Quadrant-2 losses which is more than any of the other teams seeded 1-8 in the East Region, and the Bruins have a Quadrant-3 loss on their record which is as many as those other teams have combined.
This isn't to suggest UCLA will get bounced in the first round. After all, this is the same team that stunned the world by making the Final Four as an 11th-seeded First Four team.
The core of Johnny Juzang (16.0 ppg), Jaime Jaquez (14.0 ppg), Jules Bernard (12.8 ppg), and Tyger Campbell (11.5 ppg) have the mix of tournament experience and scoring acumen to be a threat. But the spread for this matchup with Akron is rather large and hasn't fared well for No. 4 seeds in the past.
The Bruins are favored by 13.5 points, and fourth seeds favored by 10+ points in the opening round are 6-13 against the spread since 2006. And Akron, the MAC champions, have an appreciable amount of offensive firepower as well.
Ali Ali leads the team in scoring (14.2 ppg) and 3-point percentage (41.2%) and is a big reason Akron ranks 77th in the nation from deep.
Xavier Castanza (13.5 ppg) assists on that front, shooting 37.6% on much higher volume (5.9 attempts per game to Ali's 3.5). Enrique Freeman (13.2 ppg) is the Zips' primary rim attacker, taking a whopping 76.4% of his shots at the rim while shooting 72.4% there.
Akron's trio of scorers also has a nose for getting to the line, with their 21 free throw attempts per game ranking 30th in the nation.
If the Zips can manage a decent night from deep while also getting to the line enough, the 13.5 number is just simply too large.
Prediction: Akron +13.5 (-110)
Best Bonuses
Along with our March Madness best betting sites, check out the best bonuses available for the tournament.
Over/Under analysis
The No. 13 vs No. 4 matchup has been very Under friendly in the last ten years, going 25-15 (62.5%) that way. UCLA has also played that direction against tournament teams this year, going 6-3 to the Under in nine such games. Akron had just one game against a team in the field (Ohio State) and played to the Under as well.
But the total of 128 is noticeably staggering low, 10 points lower than the 10-year average for this matchup. Akron has played in five games at or below that mark and has played 4-1 to the Over.
UCLA, given that it ranks 14th in KenPom offense, sees totals that low much less frequently but the two times it saw a sub-130 total it played to the Over.
This isn't necessarily a strong inclination on the Over, especially given that first-round games (especially ones on the first day) typically lean towards the Under. But given the context of where this total is and these teams' performances within those parameters, the Over may be the better side.
Prediction: Over 128 (-110)
Best bet
As mentioned previously, UCLA's path to winning the East Region can certainly be colored as favorable. The likes of Baylor, Kentucky, and Purdue all have glaring holes or flaws and have some of the tougher lower-seeded opponents in the way before getting to the regional final.
Despite that, the 13.5 number for its first-round game with Akron is quite high. Even logically, it's not an easy task to win by that high of margin in a game projected to go Under 130.
The Zips also fight extremely well as underdogs, managing a 9-2 record as an underdog this year and winning an incredible eight of those games straight up which includes the three wins in the MAC tournament.
There's rarely anything more dangerous in the first weekend of the Big Dance than a team that believes in itself more than seemingly everyone else.
Pick: Akron +13.5 (-105)
Become a smarter March Madness bettor
Safe March Madness betting sites
