Auburn vs Iowa Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Tigers Find An Edge

The Auburn Tigers will face off against the Iowa Hawkeyes on Thursday in a first-round NCAA Tournament showdown in Birmingham, Alabama.

Iowa earned the No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region, while Auburn took the No. 9 slot and is a slight March Madness odds favorite. The winner faces a likely matchup with No. 1 seed Houston in the second round.

Both the Hawkeyes and the Tigers struggled down the stretch but will be looking to turn things around on their way to making a deep March Madness run. We’ll break down who has the edge in our college basketball picks and predictions for Auburn vs. Iowa on March 16. For more, check out our March Madness picks.

Auburn vs Iowa best odds

Auburn vs Iowa picks and predictions

On the surface, these two teams profile very similarly. Both teams finished just above .500 in their conference schedules and saw their conference tournament runs come to an end with upset losses to weaker teams in the first round. Auburn and Iowa have each lost four of their last six as well.

Both teams also have some impressive performances in these recent down stretches. The Tigers played Alabama within single digits twice in the last five weeks and finished up their regular season with a 79-70 win against Tennessee. Iowa can point to a dominant 22-point win on the road over Indiana as a bright spot at the end of the season.

That sort of parity is typical for an 8 vs. 9 matchup in the first round. Sportsbooks agree, with most offering Auburn -1.5 or -1 as the line on this game. The world thinks this game is a toss-up. 

So, where can we find an edge? I think the biggest difference between these teams is that the Tigers are far more balanced than the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa has one of the best offensive attacks in the country, averaging 80.6 points per game. Junior forward Kris Murray is one of the best scorers in the country, averaging 20.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. 

If only the Hawkeyes could match that effort on defense. Iowa allows an average of 74.5 points per game, ranking outside the top 300 teams in the nation. Some of that number is due to playing at an above-average pace, but KenPom.com still ranks the Hawkeyes 166th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

This is a team that wins in spite of its defense, not because of it.

On the other hand, Auburn has taken a more balanced approach. The Tigers are holding opponents to just 66.8 points per game, on 40.3% shooting. They’re one of the best teams in the country at guarding the perimeter, holding opponents to just 28.8% shooting from beyond the arc. 

Auburn doesn’t have the firepower on offense that Iowa possesses, but it has a balanced attack. Sophomore forward Johni Broome (14 ppg) leads an attack that includes four players who are averaging double digits. The Tigers are putting up 72.7 points per game, and KenPom.com ranks them as the 49th most efficient offense in the country — not overly impressive, but certainly capable.

Iowa will need an outstanding offensive performance to win this game but it has been held under 80 points in four of its last eight games, and it may well struggle to find ways to attack an Auburn defense that has been stymying opponents all season long. 

The Tigers are the team with more tools and the far better shot at winning Thursday’s game. I’m taking Auburn minus the points.

My best bet: Auburn -1.5 (+100 at FanDuel)

Auburn vs Iowa spread analysis

Auburn opened Thursday’s matchup as a slim 1-point favorite over Iowa. The line has moved slightly in the Tigers’ direction since opening, with Auburn -1.5 now the most common line on the market.

Both teams were average against the spread this year. Auburn is 15-17 ATS on the season, while Iowa fared slightly better with a 17-15 ATS record.

However, the Hawkeyes haven’t done well for bettors down the stretch. Iowa has covered in just three of its last 10 games and was a loser ATS and SU in each of its last two contests, despite entering as the favorite in both. 

It’s not as though Auburn has been great in its recent games — it has only covered in two of its last six — it has at least been winning the games it is supposed to for the most part. 

The Tigers are the far more complete team, which sets themselves up better for success in the NCAA Tournament. If Iowa were playing well, it might be reasonable to think its offense could carry it past Auburn, if not further. But at the moment, the Hawkeyes aren’t showing me anything that suggests they’re ready to make any kind of run this weekend. 

Auburn vs Iowa Over/Under analysis

The total for this game started at 152.5. That number has come down slightly, with 151.5 now sitting as the consensus Over/Under for Thursday’s matchup.

That number is pretty much in line with Iowa’s typical totals and actually comes in a bit lower than the 155.1 average they play to. While it’s a bit high for Auburn, it’s not terribly out of line, as the Tigers have surpassed that number in three of their last nine games. 

Recently, both teams have been playing to the Over. Auburn has hit the Over four times in its last five games, while the Hawkeyes have paid out bettors on the Over in three of their last four. While Iowa is the team that would prefer a shootout, both of these teams have enough offense to keep up with a game that ends up in the 70s or 80s.

I don’t love this number, and I’ll probably stay off the total for this matchup. However, if I had to bet, the Over looks like the right play. These two teams are both trending towards higher-scoring games as of late, and this could be a close game down the stretch, increasing the odds of either an overtime finish or a situation where the two sides are trading buckets back and forth in the final minutes to lift the total.

Auburn vs Iowa betting trend to know

Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Iowa.

Auburn vs Iowa game info

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