The Illinois Fighting Illini are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Indiana Hoosiers in the Big Ten Tournament, and they now draw a Chattanooga Mocs team that is one of the better double-digit seeds in March Madness.
Will the Fighting Illini have trouble defeating the Mocs in the first round? You’ll want to keep reading our Chattanooga vs. Illinois March Madness picks and predictions for Friday, March 18 to find out.
Chattanooga vs Illinois odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Illinois opened as a 7.5-point favorite in this game, but the line is now shifting towards 8 on most books — even with most of the action seemingly being on Chattanooga. The total, meanwhile, hasn’t moved very much. It opened at 135.5 and it’s mostly staying put, although there’s one book with it at 136.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Chattanooga vs Illinois predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 1:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for March Madness, here are two of the best bonuses available:
USA: New users at FanDuel can bet $5 on any March Madness tournament game and win $150 in site credits (30/1 odds) — regardless of if your bet wins or loses! Sign Up Now
Canada: Illinois to win + Kofi Cockburn Over 19.5 points + Trent Frazier Over 4.5 assists BOOSTED to +450 (was +350) at bet365! Claim Now
Chattanooga vs Illinois game info
• Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:50 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Chattanooga vs Illinois betting preview
Injuries
Chattanooga: No injuries to report.
Illinois: Jacob Grandison G (Questionable), Austin Hutcherson G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 20-6-1 in Illinois’ last 27 NCAA Tournament games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Chattanooga vs. Illinois.
Chattanooga vs Illinois picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Mocs have one of the most talented rosters of any mid-major team, as Malachi Smith is arguably going to be the best guard on the floor in this contest. He averaged 20.1 points per game this season. Smith is also going to be joined in the backcourt by David Jean-Baptiste, who averaged 14.7 points per game. And then, Chattanooga has Silvio De Sousa on the inside. De Sousa was a four-star recruit that started his career with the Kansas Jayhawks, and he has been a presence in the paint all year for the Mocs.
The problem for Chattanooga is that Illinois has a lot of talent in the backcourt, where Trent Frazier, Alfonso Plummer, Jacob Grandison and Andre Curbelo are all capable of going off on any given night. With those four in the mix, it’s unlikely that the Mocs will get stronger play out of Smith and the rest of their guards than the Illini will out of theirs. Also, while De Sousa is a big body in the paint, he was mostly playing against weaker competition throughout the regular season. Going against Illinois big man Kofi Cockburn is going to be a whole different animal, as he is one of the most dominant forces in all of college basketball. Look for Cockburn to put up big numbers in this game, and don’t be surprised if he gets De Sousa in foul trouble.
The Fighting Illini could also have a major edge on the wing in this game, where Coleman Hawkins has been coming into his own as a forward. The sophomore had 18 points in Illinois’ lone Big Ten Tournament game, and his 3-point shot is starting to come around. He has the makings of an X-factor for the Illini in this tournament.
Overall, the difference maker in this contest should be the Fighting Illini offense. Illinois is 23rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com) this season, and the team gets to go up against a Chattanooga squad that just barely snuck into the Top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Prediction: Illinois -7.5 (-106)
Best Bonuses
Along with our March Madness best betting sites, check out the best bonuses available for the tournament.
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 neutral-court games that Chattanooga has played, and it’s also 5-2 in the last seven games that the team has played after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Under is 20-6-1 in Illinois’ last 27 NCAA Tournament games, and it’s 4-1 in the last five in which the team was favored in the tournament.
Since Brad Underwood took over as the head coach of Illinois, the Under also happens to be 39-20 when the team is facing opponents with winning percentages between 60.0% and 80.0%. With the Fighting Illini taking care of the basketball, they’re not going to gift the Mocs any easy buckets in transition. The Under has hit in each of Illinois’ last three games, and the lack of mistakes is helping these games stay low-scoring.
It also helps that the Illini are going to try to utilize Cockburn’s size in the post. Any possessions in which Illinois gives him the ball with his back to the basket will take time and help Under bettors.
Pick: Under 136.5 (-110)
Best bet
Considering this number is down at 135.5 across most sportbooks, it’s a no-brainer to grab it at 136.5. Even at the most common number, this is the right play in a game that just shouldn’t have a whole lot of points scored. This Fighting Illini team might be good on the offensive end, but it isn’t quite as special as it was last year — the fact that Ayo Dosunmu now plays for the Chicago Bulls is a big part of that.
Meanwhile, the Mocs play at an extremely slow pace on the offensive end, working the clock until they get good shots. That shouldn’t come as much as a surprise, considering the team is coached by Lamont Paris, who was a former assistant for the Wisconsin Badgers.
It’s also important to note that this game has the potential of being a little lopsided in the second half. That would also slow things down a bit, as Illinois would start to run the clock on the offensive end. The Illini would also be defending a Mocs team that would be uncharacteristically speeding up the pace to try to get back in it.
Pick: Under 136.5 (-110)
Become a smarter March Madness bettor
Safe March Madness betting sites
